Race for Senate Seat Threatens to Be a Walk

Gilmore Struggling Despite GOP's Longtime Edge

After hosting some of the nation's most fiercely contested U.S. Senate races over the past two decades, Virginia has what has turned out to be a decidedly one-sided affair this year between Democrat Mark R. Warner and Republican James S. "Jim" Gilmore III.

A year ago, pundits were billing the potential matchup between Gilmore and Warner, both former governors, as one of the races to watch as Democrats sought to expand their majority in the Senate.

But Gilmore never gained much traction against Warner, who has opened a 30-point lead in polls as he seeks to replace retiring Sen. John W. Warner (R).

Gilmore advisers say they are optimistic that he can pull off a surprise victory on Election Day. Otherwise, Virginia will have two Democratic senators for the first time since 1970.

The Gilmore campaign has been dogged by poor fundraising, a dispirited GOP base and an aggressive effort by Warner to cast his opponent as fiscally irresponsible when he was governor from 1998 to 2002.

Warner left office in 2006 with record high approval ratings and gained national exposure this summer when he gave the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention.

Both candidates, however, have struggled to get their message out because Virginia is a key battleground state in the presidential contest between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

Gilmore had hoped he would be able to latch his electoral fortunes to McCain. Doubting that historically conservative Virginia would back Obama, Gilmore printed up "McCain-Gilmore" signs, anticipating he would benefit from a big showing for McCain on Election Day.

But with polls showing Obama ahead or tied with McCain in Virginia, it appears doubtful that Gilmore can rely on McCain to pull him across the finish line.

A Washington Post poll on Monday found Warner ahead by nearly 40 points in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads and by 2-to-1 in central Virginia, which includes Richmond and its suburbs, Gilmore's political home base. Warner also leads in the rural western part of the state.

Nearly three in 10 self-described Republicans backed Warner, even though there have been some stark differences between him and Gilmore's more traditionally GOP positions on the campaign trail.

But Warner has sought throughout the campaign to portray himself as someone who would go to the Senate to fashion a bipartisan group of "radical centrists" willing to work across party lines to address issues.