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Discord on Economies In a World Of Trouble

China may prove more cautious than any other nation. Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the Institute of Finance and Securities, said he thinks Chinese officials, while joining their European counterparts in calling for an overhaul of current regulatory systems, would stop short of supporting a proposal for a worldwide organization with significant power.

"It is important to have an agency which can coordinate the global market and policies of different countries," Wu said. "But China doesn't like the idea of having a global SEC since no organization should affect the sovereignty of countries."

Prospects for Politicians

For some leaders, the financial crisis offers a political opportunity at a time when electorates are deeply concerned about the future. Brown, Merkel and Sarkozy are all facing low approval ratings.

"I think all of the governments are uncomfortably aware that they have got very, very nervous electorates. Point one is just to show that somehow there is an agenda which can allow people to feel that something's under control," said Davies, the director of the London School of Economics. "People like Sarkozy, in particularly, and Brown know that their future depends on it appearing that they are responding adequately to this crisis."

There are dangers, though. The pressure to be seen as taking vigorous action could lead to overregulation, say many business leaders, especially in London, where the financial services sector plays a key role in the economy.

Willem Buiter, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former Bank of England policymaker, said he feared "we will . . . end up regulating so tightly that a lot of financial institutions will be untenable and unprofitable and we will spend the next decade slowly chipping away at over-regulation."

Disunity is another risk. If world leaders fail to coordinate, the consequences could be severe. Their staggered responses to the financial crisis in September contributed to bank runs and currency fluctuations, as money fled to whatever country was promising the most generous guarantees.

"If we forbid alcohol in two pubs only, everyone would just go to the other pubs," said Dimitrios Tsomocos, professor of financial economics at Oxford University and a consultant to the Bank of England, who added that one nation's regulatory scheme must not be more attractive to business than another's.

"Now, with the crisis I think the chances have improved for coming to an international consensus," said Michael Meister, a parliamentarian with Merkel's Christian Democrats. "I hope the crisis will serve as a chance for real reform. . . . The more time elapses, the more difficult it will be to change regulations because once the urgency passes, there will be reluctance for action."

Robert Hormats, a vice chairman at Goldman Sachs and former National Security Council staffer, said that the November summit would be valuable if it became the first in a series of G-20 meetings, widening economic coordination.

"We're at a point of time where the role of emerging economies has become very apparent and where the G-7 does not have the capacity in the eyes of many people in the world to solve this problem alone," Hormats said.

"We've learned from this crisis that you can't conceivably in the future try to pretend that the global financial system can be run by the occasional phone call between the Fed, the Bank of England, the SEC and the FSA," Davies agreed. "That's not going to work anymore."

Brown, in a speech to business leaders in London this week, said, "We have got to . . . involve China, India and all the emerging market economies because the world economy is changing before our eyes, and the system that is just built on Europe and America will not survive the test of time."

Jordan reported from London, Cody from Paris. Correspondents Blaine Harden in Tokyo and Ariana Eunjung Cha in Shanghai, as well as special correspondents Karla Adam in London, Akiko Yamamoto in Tokyo, Shannon Smiley in Berlin and Stella Kim in Seoul contributed to this report.


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