By Raw Fisher
Tuesday, November 4, 2008

From Marc Fisher's blog, Raw Fisher

As you watch the returns roll in tonight, here are seven questions that the results will, perhaps, answer:

1. Is a hard-core appeal to social conservatives no longer a path to victory for Virginia's Republican Party?

If Barack Obama carries the state, does that mean moderate Republicans who have been pushed out of office in recent years will have a case for steering their party back toward the center? Or will social conservatives be emboldened to press their cause even more, arguing that Republicans lose only when they fail to stick to moral and political principles?

If John McCain prevails but Senate candidate Jim Gilmore goes down in a big defeat, how does that inform the continuing civil war within the Virginia GOP?

2. Is it just party and personality that made the difference for slots in Maryland?

When then-Gov. Bob Ehrlich pushed for slots, Martin O'Malley said they were "morally bankrupt" and a "gambling gimmick." Then O'Malley won Ehrlich's job. Now it's O'Malley who pushes for slots and Ehrlich who says the new governor's plan is "bad policy."

After having voted for the anti-slots candidate for governor, will Marylanders now follow what their governor said or what he did?

3. Will Rep. Frank R. Wolf become the last Republican to represent any part of Maryland or Virginia inside the Beltway?

With Fairfax County Board of Supervisor's Chairman Gerry Connolly poised to turn the departing Rep. Tom Davis's Fairfax County seat from red to blue, that would leave Wolf, if reelected, as the only Republican whose district includes any turf inside the Capital Beltway. It wasn't that long ago that, in addition to Davis, Republican Connie Morella held the Montgomery County seat now occupied by Democrat Chris Van Hollen.

4. Was it party affiliation or political positions that kept Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in office for so long in Maryland's 1st District (Eastern Shore and parts of Anne Arundel County)?

If Republican Andy Harris, who knocked Gilchrest out in the primary this year, prevails over Democrat Frank Kratovil, that will tell us that party loyalty has not lost all of its power in that part of Maryland. Of course, if Kratovil wins, that sends a very different message, and a GOP that has nearly given up on winning statewide offices will have to think about a whole new appeal.

5. Will the D.C. Council, deeply frustrated by Mayor Adrian Fenty's end runs around them on issue after issue, embark on a more confrontational or obstructionist path over the next two years?

If Michael Brown wins the at-large council contest, will that embolden Chairman Vincent Gray (D) and council members such as Marion Barry (D-Ward 8), Harry Thomas (D-Ward 5), Phil Mendelson (D-At Large), and David Catania (I-At Large) to take a stronger, elbows-out approach in their battles to get the mayor to be more open, cooperative and even deferential to the council?

6. How close can Mark Warner come to sweeping every county and city in Virginia -- and, if he does, what does that mean for next year's race for governor?

It is, of course, extremely unlikely that he'll pull it off, even against a weak opponent such as Jim Gilmore (in Virginia last week, Sarah Palin didn't even bother to mention Gilmore to two crowds -- a rare breach of protocol bordering on outright insult). But would a huge Warner victory reflect only his personal success in portraying himself as a centrist whose business focus and practical manner transcend party, or would it give Democrats a real leg up on next year's governor's race?

7. Who will do better against Obama in rural Virginia, McCain or Hillary Clinton?

Although Obama won the Virginia Democratic primary last February by 64 percent to Clinton's 35 percent, she trounced him in the state's rural southwest, where many white voters far preferred her populist pitch and were often openly skeptical of or antagonistic toward the idea of a black president. Clinton hit 86 percent in Lee County, the state's westernmost county. Have Obama's repeat visits to the region made enough of a difference to improve his showing, or will McCain similarly dominate in that part of the state?

Join me at noon today for a discussion of why people do -- and don't -- vote on "Raw Fisher Radio" athttp://www.washingtonpost.com/rawfisherradio.