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Bush Applauds 'A Triumph of the American Story'
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But Shelton and many other civil rights advocates argue that Bush's rhetoric often did not match his policies, which included proposed budget cuts in many social programs important to blacks and other minorities. Bush also refused invitations to annual NAACP conventions until 2006 because of disputes over critical comments from people associated with the group.
"If you ask me whether Bush's policies helped or hurt the African American community, my answer would be he would be an F-minus-minus-minus," said David Bositis at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a think tank focused on African American issues. "On the other hand . . . he was genuinely comfortable with African Americans and brought a lot of African Americans into his administration. It's a complicated picture."
Most civil rights activists and Republicans agree that the administration's bungled response to Hurricane Katrina -- which left tens of thousands of African Americans stranded in storm-ravaged New Orleans -- was the final straw.
One senior Republican operative, who declined to be identified discussing the issue, said "there was headway being made" in the Republican party's inroads with African Americans until the hurricane hit in 2005. "Katrina was a total setback on that front," the operative said. "What cemented it was the nomination of Obama in this cycle."
Janet Murguía, president and chief executive of the advocacy group National Council of La Raza, said Bush was "all hat and no cattle" on immigration-law changes, which he never pushed through Congress because of strong opposition from his party. McCain angered many Latinos by appearing to retreat on the same issue and by waging a presidential campaign aimed at firing up rural white voters, she said.
Murguía said the GOP will have a difficult time mounting national electoral victories without Hispanic support.
"The Latino vote is turning out to be the margin of victory in places like Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, maybe even North Carolina," she said. "This isn't about reading the tea leaves anymore. This is a clear demographic shift in voters."
Staff writer Michael Abramowitz and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.
