Presidential Transitions and Foreign Policy

Transitions and National Security

In the case of national security, presidential transitions represent a particularly delicate time. Campaign rhetoric may have taken a toll on U.S. foreign diplomacy efforts by the current administration; outgoing administrations may make decisions that will cause problems for the incoming one; some of the most important jobs may be temporarily vacant; and new personnel will need to get up to speed.

The last two presidents to transition during wartime were Eisenhower and Nixon. Eisenhower promised at the end of his campaign, "I shall go to Korea," and managed to get an armistice signed ending the Korean War within months of taking office. Meena Bose, chair in presidential studies at Hofstra University, notes though Eisenhower had a "well-conceived view" of his plans, he still convened an enormous task force after the election to look into the matter. Bose notes that this task force and his trip to Korea during the transition were done in secret and would be difficult to execute today. Truman and several top officials met with Eisenhower and provided him with national security information. However, early transitions during this time were not as extensive as they are today. When Eisenhower took office there was not a national security adviser position and the National Security Council was comparatively small. Eisenhower also had ties to the military that more recent presidents have not had.

Nixon made a vague campaign promise (TIME) to end the war in Vietnam but refused to give details on how he would do it, historians have said. Burke notes that vagueness eased pressure on Nixon, who was not able to make good on the promise for almost four years. Overall, there was very little cooperation between the Nixon and Johnson administrations on the war during the transition period. However, during this time, Nixon had one of his top national security advisers, Henry Kissinger, secretly contact the North Vietnamese to attempt to restart the stalled Paris peace talks. Debate exists on what impact Kissinger's activities had on the final days of the Johnson administration, Burke notes, calling it a tale of many layers.

Experts say the incoming president should be mindful that the outgoing president remains the president until Inauguration Day. This can cause tensions in both directions. The decisions of the outgoing president can take their toll. Outgoing presidents must respond to pressing situations, such as the 2008 global financial crisis. Sometimes presidents make decisions they think are short-lived. When President Geroge H.W. Bush sent a humanitarian mission to Somalia in December 1992, he assured Americans the troops would be out before Bill Clinton's inauguration, which they were not. Meanwhile, an outgoing president's diplomatic efforts may be hampered as other governments look toward forming relationships with the incoming administration. "There's no reason to curry favor with the outgoing president," Goldgeier notes.

Transition and the Economy

Despite the tradition of a hands-off role in transitions, the incoming administration will be under a great deal of pressure to take the reins of the economy (Bloomberg) due to the global financial crisis. Some experts say the incoming president should name the next treasury secretary as soon as possible. The Bush administration's Treasury Department has offered to allow incoming administration officials to work out of Treasury offices during the transition, a time during which the $700 billion financial rescue package signed in October 2008 will be partially disbursed. James Thurber, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University, told Bloomberg that the president-elect has to be involved because of the situation's seriousness, but "he has to be very careful because he's not the president and won't be the president until he's sworn in.'' However, the new president is unlikely to attend a November 15 summit on the financial crisis (Reuters) with twenty nations, hosted by the Bush administration.

In past transitions during tough economic times, incoming administrations worked quickly to get their financial plans in place. During the transition between Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover, the outgoing president tried to engage Roosevelt in economic policy, but Roosevelt remained distant and refused to agree to Hoover's requests to support policies such as linking economic recovery to repayment of World War I debts. Instead, in the first hundred days (NPR) of his presidency, Roosevelt accomplished a number of his New Deal initiatives, including delinking the dollar from the price of gold and passing a law guaranteeing bank deposits (VOA).

Ronald Reagan, who took office when the United States was experiencing much higher inflation and unemployment rates than those of 2008, set his transition team on a package of tax cuts, budget cuts, and increased military spending, the University of Vermont's Burke notes. Hofstra's Bose says Reagan also worked very closely with his treasury secretary. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton, entering office at the end of a recession, created the National Economic Council shortly after taking office in 1993 and put it on par with the National Security Council, becoming the first president to treat the economy as a major foreign policy issue. Clinton also held a series of forums on the economy as well during the transition period.