Nuance on the March

Blunt and pugnacious will soon give way to supple and below-the-radar. Say goodbye to the Bush era in foreign policy and hello to the Obama moment.

Prepare for bluster about enemies to become nuance about not-yet-friends; for ideology to cede to empirical practice; for co-opting to overtake confronting as a first resort. And prepare to be surprised by things coming together unexpectedly as well as falling apart.

The new ways in which the White House will address the world after Jan. 20 have been forecast by the campaign themes developed for two years by Barack Obama. But more important, the changes are already present in the quiet presidential transition effort that has been underway in earnest for a month.

The president-elect has been given little credit for his back-channeling prowess -- which could show how good he is at it. He prepares carefully, keeps his own counsel to an extraordinary degree and then acts without the impulsiveness of George W. Bush, the post-decision agonizing of Bill Clinton or the consistent vacillation of Jimmy Carter. Examples:

· Late last spring, Obama settled on Joe Biden as his most important counselor on foreign affairs. The two conferred quietly in the shadows of the extended primary campaign, forging the confident relationship that led to Biden becoming vice president-elect and having a major voice in Obama's future foreign policy.

· There has been a greater meeting of minds on Iraq and Afghanistan between Obama and Gen. David Petraeus than either has publicized, and it has been deepened by continuing indirect contacts since they met in Baghdad in July. It came as no surprise to key Obama aides when Pentagon officials said one day after the election that Petraeus had decided to accelerate the withdrawal of a combat brigade from Iraq by six weeks.

· Both the Obama and McCain campaigns have had transition teams working at the Treasury Department for about a month. This is in addition to the involvement in the administration's current decisions by Timothy F. Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

(It also may not hurt Geithner's chances of becoming Treasury secretary that he is 47, the same age as the president-elect; Obama's arrival at the White House heralds an implicit generational transformation in politics that has been overshadowed by the publicity about the national transformation in race relations.)

Obama has made no secret that Iraq and Afghanistan form his two most urgent priorities in foreign policy. Iran is third on the list, according to one knowledgeable aide, while climate change and the Middle East peace process rank as important but too difficult or diffuse to address effectively right away.