BCS Continues to Be Power Driven

By Steve Yanda
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, November 8, 2008

Over the course of its 11-year existence, the Bowl Championship Series has been quick to make minor adjustments from one year to the next. Sensitive to public complaints, those who run the BCS have attempted many times to address retroactively the problems that arose in previous seasons. However, there is one issue this year that no knee-jerk reaction will solve.

History suggests that no more than one school from the non-BCS conferences will play in a BCS bowl, even though this season, more than one appears deserving of such an honor. Three Mountain West Conference teams (Utah, Texas Christian and Brigham Young), as well as Boise State from the Western Athletic Conference, are ranked in the top 15 of the BCS rankings.

Six conferences currently receive automatic bids -- the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pacific-10 and Southeastern Conference -- to one of the five BCS bowls, leaving four at-large spots. BCS guidelines stipulate that, to qualify for one of the at-large bids, teams must finish the regular season ranked among the top 14 in the BCS standings or be ranked in the top 16 and ranked higher than the champion of conferences that own automatic BCS bowl berths. No conference can send more than two teams to BCS games.

This season, the Big 12 and SEC likely will draw two BCS bowl bids each, leaving two slots open, and though it would seem multiple teams from non-BCS leagues have some of the most attractive résumés for those positions, only one likely will get the call. And because of the rules governing the structure of the BCS, the status of those conferences likely won't change soon.

"Was it disappointing in 2004 when Boise State got left out? Yes, it was disappointing," W AC Commissioner Karl Benson said. "It will be disappointing this year if, whether it be Boise State or Utah or TCU that gets left out, but the rules are what they are. We're not going to change them now."

Altered Restrictions

Following the 2004-05 season, in which Boise State finished the regular season ninth in the BCS ratings but did not qualify for an at-large bid because it did not finish in the top six, BCS organizers loosened access restrictions to college football's postseason showcase. They created a fifth BCS bowl and extended the qualifying mark for an at-large bid to include teams in the top 12 of the BCS rankings. The qualifying mark later was altered to include teams in the top 14.

Also in 2005, BCS organizers introduced new standards by which all conferences would be measured. The data compiled and evaluated over a four-year span include the ranking of each conference's highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings each year, the final regular season rankings of all conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year and the number of teams a conference has in the top 25 of the final BCS ratings each year.

For five of the six conferences that had received automatic bids since the BCS's inception during the 1998-99 season, the new criteria caused little worry. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pacific-10 and SEC each had contracts in place with one of the BCS bowls, which meant they were not at risk of being knocked out of the BCS picture regardless of whether they met the criteria.

"The ACC is lucky it has a contract with the Orange Bowl because it hasn't done well in the last four years," said Jerry Palm, who runs the Web site www.CollegeBCS.com and charts the BCS. "They're going to send a team to the Orange Bowl whether the BCS says it can or not."

The Big East, on the other hand, is not in as fortunate a position. The BCS criteria were instituted just after the Big East had lost three of its key football members to the ACC. Without a BCS bowl contract and in the process of inviting new members to join its ranks, the Big East assumed a vulnerable position.

"We hadn't even gotten our new members when the standards were passed," Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese said. "So of course we were concerned -- very, very concerned."

Between the revival of some of the Big East's more traditional teams -- Rutgers and West Virginia -- and the performance of some new additions -- Cincinnati, Louisville and South Florida -- the conference easily met the criteria by the end of the first four-year period.

A more lingering matter for the BCS, according to Tranghese, was how to synchronize the cycles of its television contract and its evaluation period. While this season marks the first year of another evaluation period, it's also the third year of the BCS's four-year, $320 million television deal with Fox.

BCS administrator Bill Hancock said the current evaluation period for the six conferences that receive automatic BCS bids will be extended to six years so that its conclusion will coincide with the end of the BCS's next four-year television deal. Regardless of performance in this or any of the following five seasons, the conferences that currently receive automatic bids will continue to do so, at least until the cycle is complete.

The five non-BCS conferences will continue to be evaluated on a four-year term, according to Hancock. Following the 2010-11 season, if one of those five conferences meets the criteria, it will be extended an automatic BCS bid for the following two seasons. BCS guidelines stipulate that no less than five and no more than seven conferences can receive automatic bids.

Chances Are Less Than Fair

TCU Coach Gary Patterson said if two non-BCS conference teams finish higher than a runner-up from a BCS league in this year's rankings, both deserve bids.

"We all understand TV, money and all the rest of it," Patterson said, "but if we're going to say it's a fair concept and we're going to live by those rules, then I think you give both teams an opportunity to be able to do that."

Many sources contacted for this story agreed that if two non-BCS league schools are ever going to earn BCS bids in the same season, this will be the year. But that didn't necessarily make them think it was likely to occur.

"The only way that will happen is if there are no other choices," Palm said. "If they have a third major conference qualify two teams, there's no way. Absolutely none. It's just not going to happen. Those teams are not attractive to BCS bowls. They don't draw fans. They don't generate as much TV interest. Nobody's taking Boise State over Ohio State."

And because the next round of BCS conference evaluations are four years from being complete, the MWC's precarious footing will not immediately improve.

"It's longevity," Mountain West Commissioner Craig Thompson said. "If we [had success] year after year, there would be no discussion, no subjectivity. It would be, 'You've earned it based on this criteria.' I think we're making great progress. We just have to keep doing it."