By Kafia A. Hosh
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, November 9, 2008

An influx of diverse voters and a faltering economy helped Barack Obama win Loudoun County last week, political analysts said, something no Democratic presidential candidate had done in more than 40 years.

Democrats had not carried Loudoun in a presidential election since Lyndon B. Johnson's victory in 1964, a record of futility that mirrored their losing streak in Virginia as a whole. Obama (D-Ill.) won 53.6 percent of the Loudoun vote, compared with 45.5 percent for Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), very close to their share of the state vote, according to unofficial results.

Loudoun remains one of the fastest-growing counties in the United States, and analysts cited the swell of its minority population as one of the factors that propelled Obama's win. The county's Hispanic population grew by 28,529 people from 2000 to 2007, according to a recent Pew Hispanic Center report.

A decade ago, the Republican Party's emphasis on entrepreneurship and family values appealed to some immigrant communities, said Robert D. Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University. But the party's recent calls for a crackdown on illegal immigrants, in Loudoun and nationally, have "been interpreted in some of these communities as almost anti-immigrant rhetoric," he said. "That's been very harmful to the Republican Party."

Mark J. Rozell, a public policy professor at George Mason University, agreed that Latinos "right now see the Democratic Party as a friendlier place." He said the Republican Party in Loudoun has not come up with a strategy for winning those voters.

"Changes were taking place before their eyes, people were coming into their county, and the Republicans weren't doing anything to reach out to those new people," Rozell said.

Tim Buchholz, chairman of the Loudoun County Democratic Committee, said the growing diversity population was evident to him as he campaigned door-to-door for Obama. He said he noticed emerging Hispanic, Indian, East Asian and Eastern European communities in areas such as Brambleton, South Riding and Dulles.

But local Republican officials said they thought McCain's loss in Loudoun had less to do with demographic changes in the county than with Obama's large budget, which helped in spreading his message.

"The amount of resources he was able to pour into counties like Loudoun made it a very uphill battle for Republicans to hold on to the county," said Glen Caroline, chairman of the Loudoun County Republican Committee. "We saw [Obama campaign] workers volunteering across the county from out of state, whereas our volunteers [were] a homegrown, Loudoun-based effort."

McCain's showing in Loudoun also was hurt by the national economic turmoil that most voters blamed on the incumbent party, political analysts said. The crisis on Wall Street became a primary concern for voters in the Washington suburbs, which already faced record numbers of housing foreclosures and plunging real estate values.

"These are the folks who are either suffering themselves or see on their way home every night the visible signs of an unsettled economy," Holsworth said. "You not only have empathy for the families that are going through this, but your own property values are affected."

Caroline said voters ultimately blamed President Bush for the financial markets' meltdown, and that in turn hurt Republicans. "Clearly the state of the economy in Loudoun didn't do much to help John McCain," he said. "I think the economy right now trumped the issues."

Obama's win adds to a string of recent Democratic triumphs in Loudoun. The county voted for Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) in 2005 and Sen. James Webb (D) in 2006. And in last year's Board of Supervisors race, Democrats running on a slow-growth platform ousted Republican incumbents.

Analysts said Loudoun Republicans must regroup and refine their message if they hope to prevent Loudoun from becoming any bluer.

Loudoun had been a reliably red county, and "I think a lot of Republicans believed it and got a little lazy," Rozell said. "One criticism I hear is that they took things for granted for a long time and now they are in the catch-up phase."

Their only victory in Loudoun came in the 10th District, as Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R) received 58.4 percent of the county's vote, beating Democratic challenger Judy Feder.

Analysts said Wolf was reelected because of his long track record and crossover appeal. "If anything, his party affiliation worked against him," Rozell said. "It was an individual victory."

Caroline said his party needs to focus on emphasizing its main principles: national defense, support of small businesses and lower taxes. "I think what we need to do is get back to better explaining who we are at the core," he said.

Bucholz said Democrats hope to build on their recent victories in Loudoun but can't assume future contests will break in their favor. "Every election we have to go out and earn those votes," he said.

Rozell agreed Loudoun still can't be considered a Democratic county. "It's not strictly blue. It's purple with some definite shades of blue," he said.