The Swing Counties, and How They Swung

Although it is not growing as fast as some counties in Northern Virginia, Henrico is starting to take on some of the qualities of Fairfax, especially in the western neighborhoods near the Short Pump mall. About 28 percent of the population is black. Bush easily won Henrico in his races, but Kaine won it by eight percentage points in 2005. (Kaine, a former Richmond mayor, was the local candidate.) In 2006, Webb lost Henrico by 562 votes out of the 101,000 that were cast.

Result: Obama carried Henrico County by 18,942 votes. Obama received 56 percent vs. McCain's 43 percent.

· NELSON COUNTY: This mountainous county of 15,000 is southwest of Albemarle County, which surrounds Charlottesville. With a mix of rural voters and transplants from liberal-leaning Charlottesville, Nelson has become a tossup in presidential contests. In 2000, Bush won it by six votes. Four years later, he lost it to Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) by four votes. Webb and Kaine won it fairly easily.

Result: Obama won Nelson County by 744 votes. Obama received 54 percent vs. McCain's 45 percent.

· MONTGOMERY COUNTY: Between the Appalachian plateau and the Blue Ridge Mountains, Montgomery includes Blacksburg, which is home to Virginia Tech. Bush carried the county twice, but Kaine and Webb also won it. Results this year could depend on the turnout among Virginia Tech students.

Result: Obama won Montgomery County by 2,001 votes. Obama received 52 percent vs. McCain's 47 percent.

· RUSSELL COUNTY: Russell, in coal country in southwestern Virginia, has traditionally been Democratic, supporting Bill Clinton during his presidential campaigns in the 1990s. Since then, Russell and the rest of the region have been trending Republican. Gore won the county with 50 percent of the vote in 2000, but Bush won it easily in 2004. Kilgore, who lived in the region, carried Russell in the 2005 governor's race, but Webb won it by 171 votes the next year.

Given the region's strong ties to the Democratic Party and organized labor, Russell could be an indicator of Obama's appeal to working-class voters in the area. In the Feb. 12 primary, he won 14 percent of the vote in Russell, where whites make up 98 percent of the population.

Result: McCain won Russell County by 1,458 votes. McCain received 56 percent vs. Obama's 43 percent.