Election Turnout Falls Short Of Forecasts

McGhie said District officials don't have any theories to explain the numbers but noted that, as in other areas, polls that had long lines in the morning had none in the afternoon, something not seen in previous elections.

Experts caution against drawing too many conclusions from the figures. For one thing, although almost all absentee and provisional ballots have been counted, a small number in some counties have yet to be tallied.

And some stressed that examining turnout as the percentage of registered voters who cast ballots obscures the fact that more people voted this year. A study of preliminary figures by a professor at George Mason University has found that a larger percentage of eligible voters came to the polls this year nationally than in any year since 1968.

"This is still huge turnout in terms of absolute numbers," said John T. Willis, a former Maryland secretary of state and a professor at the University of Baltimore who examines turnout trends. "This is not something to worry about."

Dips from 2004 might not be surprising, some experts said, noting that turnout rose dramatically that year because many voters perceived the election between President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) as whisker-close.

Still, vigorous discussions are taking place about why more registrants did not cast ballots in a historic election. Willis said his class dug into the numbers Wednesday evening. He noted that all indicators before the election pointed to the possibility of much higher turnout. There was record turnout in the February primary, record numbers of new registrants and record numbers of voters requesting absentee ballots.

Some experts said that the simplest explanation might be the most likely: Despite Obama's emotional pull, the fact that the campaigns spent so little time in uncompetitive Maryland and Washington meant that some voters who might have been lured to the polls stayed home.

"Maryland was ready, but there was just no activity going on," said Rob Richie, executive director of FairVote, which advocates abolishing the electoral college in favor of a national popular vote.

Although the Obama campaign opened several offices in Maryland, those operations were largely aimed at harnessing the enthusiasm of Marylanders to help sway voters in other states. Election Day phone calls aimed to get out the vote in other states.

"We're an exporting state -- candidates come here to raise money and get us to go elsewhere," Willis said, noting that the same is true for the District.

Another reason for unrealistic expectations about turnout might have been that some of those making the predictions were themselves caught up in Obama excitement, said Peter Levine, director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, a Tufts University group that studies youth civic engagement.

Although some young voters in college were particularly engaged this year, Levine said, others were less enthusiastic. Levine recalled meeting with a group of 20-year-olds in Baltimore who were not enrolled in college. None in the group, all black, was registered or planning to vote, despite the historic election, he said.

"If you were close to the campaign and enthusiastic about Obama, it felt to you like this was a electoral tsunami," Levine said. "That was not true for everyone."