In Rampant Violent Crime, Political Danger for Chávez

"Here, violence is not controlled. It is either fomented on purpose or is allowed to take place," said Mónica Fernández, a former judge who is director of Penal Forum, which analyzes legal issues.

"There is no recognition of the real problem," said Fernández, who was shot this year in a robbery. "It is not in the state's interest to reveal homicide statistics, and if you deny the problem, you cannot find ways to resolve the problem."

Some criminologists note that cities elsewhere have reduced homicide rates by reforming police departments, using high-tech methods to identify crime trends and starting community policing programs, among other measures. Many of those factors played a role in New York, for instance, where homicides fell from 2,245 in 1990 to 496 last year. But other cities have also registered homicide declines, even here in Latin America, which has traditionally registered high murder rates.

"These are policies that require continuity and take time, and this government just does not do that very well," said Cedeño, of Incosec. "Cities that have had success -- Bogota, Medellin, Naples or New York -- all of them resolved the problem with a multifaceted response."

In Caracas, perhaps the biggest problem is the police, who are considered ineffective and brutal and sometimes are directly involved in crime. Concern over police prompted the government, under Interior Minister Jesse Chacón, to establish a commission to reform the police in 2006.

The commission, which included representatives of the business community, criminologists, neighborhood representatives and officials from the judicial sector, issued a report that highlighted police corruption and proposed reforms. But crime experts here said the findings were ignored after Chacón, who had championed the commission, was replaced as minister by Pedro Carreño in January 2007.

Instead, the government approved a law that will merge police departments into one national force under a central command.

Aristóbulo Istúriz, a longtime confidant of the president who is running for mayor of greater Caracas, said the next step is to start up a disarmament program and establish community policing patrols.

"That is fundamental," said Istúriz, who acknowledged that crime is among the principal concerns in Caracas. "The people have faith in community policing."

In Caracas, the vast majority of people live in fear of being victimized, pollsters and criminologists say.

Fifty-six percent of those recently polled by Datanalisis, a Caracas polling firm, said crime was their top concern, ahead of inflation and economic problems. And a poll by a well-known sociologist who studies crime, Roberto Briceño-León, showed that 64 percent feared being attacked in the streets.

Those who are victimized most often come from the ring of slums around Caracas -- Chávez's base of support -- but they also include people like Luis Horacio Lemoine, a radio program host and magician. Last November, Lemoine awoke to find three men in his bedroom, brandishing a gun.

"I couldn't believe it," recalled Lemoine, who lives in an upscale neighborhood. "I thought it was a bad dream." The robbers tied him up and made off with money Lemoine had kept in his home.

In her hillside home, Miriam Sánchez said she is focused on making sure her five remaining children are safe. She escorts them along the maze of streets when they go to school or work. Sánchez said she prefers that they do not spend too much idle time outside.

Though she acknowledges improvements spurred by the government's generous social spending, Sánchez said she has little confidence that the streets will be getting safer anytime soon.

"I get angry because I feel that Chávez is the one to blame for everything that is happening because he is not watching out for Caracas," she said. "He should be watching more television to see how much crime there is and all the killings there are."