Venezuelans Expected to Whittle Away at Chávez's Power

Observers see growing disenchantment, even among the poor, with Hugo Chávez. "He's very worried about this, and the opposition is reasonably optimistic," says Demetrio Boersner, a history professor and former diplomat. Voting is scheduled for Sunday. (By Ariana Cubillos -- Associated Press)

Pollsters say the opposition is poised to increase its hold on the oil-rich state of Zulia, with outgoing Gov. Manuel Rosales taking the mayor's post in Maracaibo, a major city.

The opposition is also making a strong showing in the western state of Tachira and in the northern industrial state of Carabobo. There, a Chávez foe, Henrique Salas Feo, is expected to best Chávez's candidate, Mario Silva, a television shock jock who specializes in lambasting government opponents.

The president's foes are also making the election competitive in Miranda, where Caracas is located. Further complicating the panorama for the president are dissidents from his movement who may win in other states, including Barinas, where the president's brother, Adán Chávez, is facing a spirited challenge for the governorship.

Analysts say the president has been campaigning hard in such places as Zulia and in Caracas for government allies who not long ago would have won easily. He is largely ignoring issues such as crime and inflation -- among the most serious concerns of Venezuelans -- and instead is attacking his foes as traitors and lapdogs of the Bush administration.

Chávez has said he will order tanks into the streets of Carabobo to protect victories by his allies and arrest Rosales, who ran a failed campaign for the presidency in 2006, on corruption charges. Chávez also threatened to shutter television stations that broadcast early election results. He even called the politicians who broke with him "filthy traitors."

"He that betrays Chávez will die politically," the president thundered in a recent speech. "He who betrays me betrays the people."

Rosales said the president has whipped his followers into a frenzy by characterizing a vote for the opposition as a vote for the rich. "Chávez's strategy and discourse is one of violence, threats and insults to create panic in the population, which benefit him and his party," Rosales said.

But chipping away at Chávez's popularity, his foes concede, is not easy.

For all the bombast, poverty levels in Venezuela since 1999 have dropped from 53.3 percent to 37.7 percent, if measured through household income, said Pedro España, director of the Institute of Economic and Social Investigations at Andres Bello Catholic University.

Here in Petare, at a rally for Jesse Chacón, residents came out in force this week to show their support.

Donnal Perez, a die-hard supporter decked out in government red, reeled off the benefits of the Chávez administration, including free health care and subsidized food.

She noted that the government in recent weeks has showered poor neighborhoods with free appliances and other household items.

"My family has received them, and in my community just this Sunday, people who are very poor got four or five things," she said. "Refrigerators, washing machines, mattresses, beds, fans."

Betty Diaz, a resident of Petare, has not been impressed. Six months ago, her son was killed in the street, another victim in a crime wave that has shaken residents of barrios like this one.

"The people have taken note that they are being used," she said. "It is all business. You vote for me, you get a bag of food. People are tired of it."

Ocariz said he is mining the support of people such as Diaz. He said an increasing number of voters in Petare feel the need to switch from the government party to him because of concern over gritty neighborhood issues, including rising crime and the lack of garbage collection.

"The services here are getting worse, and so people's hopes have been dashed," Ocariz said.

"Our challenge is to change the quality of life here. This is not a presidential election. This is an election for mayors and governors."