In Sea Exercises, A Sign for Obama

Vladimir Sergeevich, commander of Russia's fleet, left, shakes hands with his Venezuelan counterpart, Zahin Quintana, during a meeting in Caracas. (By Ariana Cubillos -- Associated Press)

Michael Shifter, a senior policy analyst with Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, said it might also become harder for Chávez to cast the United States as the villain with a young, liberal black man in the White House. Still, Shifter said, the Obama administration will probably have many of the same interests the Bush administration has had in Latin America.

"Bush lent himself to that narrative," Shifter said. "He was the perfect foil. My guess is Chávez is going to try to put Obama in that spot, but it will take some work."

The assistant U.S. secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, Thomas Shannon, said Chávez is probably trying to adjust to the new realities in Washington. Shannon noted that Chávez has made conciliatory comments.

"So rhetorically, he's actually created all kinds of options for himself," Shannon said. "And he's obviously exploring some options now with this new administration."

The Venezuelan government, through its embassy in Washington, called Obama's election "historic" and said it paralleled the arrival of several left-leaning leaders in South America this decade. "We are convinced the time has come to establish new relations between our countries and in our region, based on respect for sovereignty, equality and true cooperation," the embassy said.

The Venezuelans frequently bring up the question of sovereignty when they express fury at U.S. funding of various civil society groups in Caracas, many of which are opposed to Chávez. Details about that assistance, contained in documents made public in Washington in 2002 after a failed coup against Chávez, have been wielded here as proof the United States helped hatch the plot.

But the Venezuelans also complain that their sovereignty is being violated when U.S. officials raise concerns about issues important to the United States, such as the trafficking of cocaine across Venezuela or the threats made by Chávez against the media and opposition figures.

Political analysts and diplomats say the Obama administration is unlikely to remain quiet about these and other concerns, though the approach might be different from that taken by the Bush administration. If Hillary Rodham Clinton becomes secretary of state, the U.S. approach to Venezuela could be tough, especially on issues such as Iran and the fight against terrorism. Clinton, like Obama, is a strong supporter of Israel; her husband is a staunch supporter of Colombia's leadership in its war against drugs and rebels.

Shannon, the assistant secretary of state, said that for now he foresees the Obama administration following through on the Bush administration strategy of building ties with big, friendly countries in the region, such as Brazil and Mexico.

"It will be up to the new administration, I think, to define how it wants to engage with Mr. Chávez and the Venezuelan government," Shannon said. "So at this point in time, number one, I wouldn't hope for too much. But number two, we've got a lot going on in the region, and he's going to have to get in line."