Putin's Intentions Debated After Shift on 4-Year Term

Putin has not ruled out another term as president. Asked at a Nov. 12 news conference with the visiting Finnish president whether he planned to return to the presidency, he said the constitutional amendment had "no personal dimension."

"As far as I know, the president of Finland is elected for six years. From this point of view, there is nothing unusual in what Mr. Medvedev has proposed," Putin said. "As for who could run for the next term, and when, it is too early to speak of this," he added, leading pundits to wonder whether he had inadvertently confirmed that the 2012 election could be moved up.

Medvedev, too, has avoided a categorical denial. Asked in an interview with the French newspaper Figaro whether he might leave office early, he replied: "I am in the process of working right now. Why are you pushing me into certain decisions?"

Both the Russian Communist Party and the fractured democratic opposition have been vocal in condemning the proposed changes to the constitution. If Putin serves two additional six-year terms, on top of the eight years he just finished, he would become the longest-serving leader of Russia since Joseph Stalin.

The Kremlin has moved unusually quickly on the amendments. The measures sailed through three votes in the Duma less than two weeks after Medvedev proposed them, and the parliament's upper house, the Federation Council, passed them Wednesday. The required approval of two-thirds of Russia's regional legislatures could be completed by year's end.

"It's a disgrace to pass a constitutional amendment at such a pace," said Kiril Rogov, a political analyst at the Institute for the Economy in Transition who wrote a column in July 2007 predicting Putin would return as president after a brief stint as prime minister. "The urgency means Putin is nervous. He's unsure how the economic situation will develop."

In addition, he noted, the global financial crisis has shifted international attention away from Russia's war with Georgia, making it easier for Medvedev to develop relationships with other world leaders. As the new president gains international respect, his clout at home will grow as well, Rogov said, adding, "It's another reason Putin wants to hurry."

There has been little hint of friction between Putin and Medvedev, a former aide. But analysts say the presence of two senior leaders at the top of Russia's centralized political system can be destabilizing, no matter how well they work together.

Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister now in the opposition, said the political landscape has already begun to shift. Putin remains on top, but Medvedev has amassed more influence than all other second-tier figures in the Kremlin, he said.

In a sign of political uncertainty, two powerful regional leaders recently made statements unusually critical of Kremlin policy. One of them, Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, called for reviving the system of direct elections of local governors that Putin abolished. Medvedev abruptly rejected the idea the next day.

Nikolai Svanidze, a journalist who was given special access to Medvedev and recently published a collection of his interviews with him, said he was doubtful the new president was planning to step down and make way for a Putin comeback. "Medvedev may have a low profile, but he's not a little boy," Svanidze said. "He doesn't leave the impression of a man who just follows orders."

Analysts say Putin often prepares several options and makes a decision at the last minute, a management style that keeps people guessing. He may be considering a return to the presidency, but the amendment strengthening the powers of the Duma suggests he could also be thinking about becoming chairman of the parliament, a position that would also allow him to exercise power while avoiding blame for the economic crisis.

Svanidze said even top government officials are uncertain of Putin's plans. "People are very nervous," he said. "They're nervous because they don't know what to do about the economic crisis and because they don't know who's going to be sitting in the Kremlin."