Fears of Widespread Violence Grow as Thai Political Crisis Takes New Turn
By Tim Johnston
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, December 1, 2008
BANGKOK, Nov. 30 -- Thousands of supporters of Thailand's beleaguered government rallied in the capital Sunday afternoon, bringing a new and combustible element to a political stalemate that is edging closer to open violence.
The demonstration was held the same day that 50 government opponents were injured when a grenade was fired into one of their protest sites in central Bangkok.
Four people were seriously injured in the early-morning explosion in the prime minister's compound, which has been occupied for months by anti-government forces.
The government supporters, calling themselves the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship, rallied in Bangkok and vowed to remain until anti-government demonstrators vacate the country's main airports, which they seized last week.
Analysts fear that if the red-shirted government supporters and the yellow-shirted anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) clash, there could be widespread violence.
"The red-shirts have been fairly restrained," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "The danger is that they have a lot of pent-up anger, and if they start to let it out, there will be no boundaries to what they could do."
For the past six months, the PAD's predominantly urban, middle-class protesters have paralyzed Thai politics as part of their campaign to force the resignation of the government, led by Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat.
They say Somchai is a stand-in for Thaksin Shinawatra, his brother-in-law and predecessor as prime minister, who was removed from office in a military coup in 2006 amid accusations of corruption and abuse of power.
Somchai, whose party won convincingly in elections last year, has refused to step down. But he has been forced to run his government from the northern city of Chiang Mai to avoid disruption from the protests.
The government had largely sidestepped the PAD's attempts to provoke a showdown. But the PAD took its campaign to a new level last week when its supporters seized the Suvarnabhumi international airport and its domestic counterpart, presenting a challenge the government could not ignore.
The crisis has crippled key industries, including tourism and exports. Some ministers say it could lead to a 1.5 percent decline in gross domestic product next year. Thailand's foreign minister also suggested that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' annual conference, scheduled to be hosted by Thailand next month, might have to be postponed.
But despite the severity of the situation, Somchai has limited options.
The government has only tenuous control over the army and police, which seem to be following their own agenda, allowing the PAD to break the law with impunity.
Many of the senior officers in the security forces are drawn from the same class of elites that form the core leadership of the PAD and share many of the same aims. Somchai and Thaksin have drawn their support primarily from the rural poor.
"The army is on the sidelines because of the PAD's powerful backing, and the police are unwilling to risk a confrontation," Thitinan said.
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