Democrats Make Most Of Shifts in Va. Electorate
Demographic Changes Put Party in Optimal Position

By Tim Craig and Jennifer Agiesta
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, November 30, 2008

Virginia Democrats have rapidly expanded their political base over the past eight years, taking nearly full advantage of demographic shifts in the suburbs, and they enter future statewide races with an advantage over the GOP, according to a review of recent election results and census data.

After an election in which Virginia was one of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race, the results show Virginia Democrats amassing a formidable coalition as the state's suburban communities grow more diverse, white voters in Northern Virginia shun the GOP, young voters align with Democrats and black voters prove they continue to have clout downstate.

The party's gains rest heavily upon the state's changing demographics and were amplified this year by deep enthusiasm for the Democratic presidential and senatorial candidates, coupled with a broadly successful turnout operation.

In Northern Virginia's outer suburbs, a growing number of nonwhite residents, particularly Hispanics, are diminishing what had long been a big source of votes for Republican candidates. Loudoun, Prince William and Stafford counties and Manassas and Manassas Park have all experienced double-digit increases in the percentage of nonwhite residents since 2000. And in each of those locations, Democrats' share of the vote increased proportionally.

The nonwhite population of Prince William, for example, has grown by 13 percentage points since 2000. President-elect Barack Obama carried the county with almost 58 percent of the vote -- 13 points better than former vice president Al Gore did in the 2000 presidential race.

Loudoun experienced a 12-point gain in the minority population since 2000, and Obama did 13 percentage points better than Gore did in 2000. Obama did 10 points better than Gore in Stafford, which saw a 10 percent increase in the minority population since 2000.

This shift, matched with historical Democratic strength in the inner suburbs, makes Northern Virginia a huge source of votes for Democrats. The region's size, compared with the rest of the state, threatens Republicans' ability to win statewide if Democrats can continue to get their voters to the poll, demographers and political scientists suggest.

"The transformation in Northern Virginia has been rapid and dramatic, and Obama came out of Northern Virginia with a margin of [213,000] votes, and that is very hard to overcome," said Ken Billingsley, director of demographics and information for the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. "In Prince William, the change has already occurred, and I am not the least bit surprised that Stafford, Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg are moving in that direction."

Obama won Virginia with 52.6 percent of the vote, racking up a higher share than he did in Florida and Ohio, more traditional swing states. Senator-elect Mark R. Warner (D) also won his race with a record number of votes, and Democrats picked up three congressional seats in Virginia.

Many Virginia Republicans argue that their party's poor showing on Election Day can largely be traced to President Bush's low approval ratings, the economic collapse on Wall Street and Obama's decision to flood the state with paid media and staffers. But an analysis of the results suggests that a more fundamental change is occurring, perhaps accelerated by Obama's success in registering hundred of thousands of new voters this year.

"There is no question Republicans cannot run the same type of campaigns they have run in the past and expect to win," said GOP strategist Phil Cox, an adviser to Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, the likely GOP nominee for governor next year. "It is a different Virginia than it was a decade ago."

Democratic inroads were evident in the partisan makeup of the electorate, as Democrats comprised 39 percent of Virginia voters this year, according to network exit polls, up from 35 percent in both 2000 and 2004. Republicans' share of the electorate declined to 33 percent from 39 percent in 2004.

According to exit polls, Hispanics made up 5 percent of the statewide electorate this year, almost matching their overall share of the population. Hispanics in Virginia favored Obama over Arizona Sen. John McCain, the GOP nominee, by an almost 2 to 1 margin. If Republicans hope to recover from their losses in time for the 2009 races for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and the House of Delegates, their candidates will have to find a way to overwhelmingly win the white vote and make inroads with blacks and Hispanics.

"I, as a Southerner, understand that for the Republican Party to win presidential elections in the future we can no longer be the party of the deep South and Prairie Midwest," said Trey Walker, a South Carolina native who oversaw McCain's Virginia campaign. "If we don't start appealing to [minorities], we are going to continue to lose."

Cox maintains that McDonnell will make an aggressive appeal for minority support next year, saying, "We are not going to cede any vote." Next year "is clearly going to be very different than 2008," Cox said. "You got different candidates, and you are going to have a different political and economic impact."

But Virginia's electorate has undergone a fundamental demographic shift in recent cycles.

In 1996, when Republican Bob Dole carried Virginia, white voters made up 81 percent of the electorate. Those same voters made up 70 percent of the electorate this year, with the decrease mostly coming from people without college degrees, a solidly Republican bloc.

Democrats have made major gains with white voters in wealthy, well-educated Northern Virginia. Four years ago, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) lost the white vote in Northern Virginia by 7 percentage points. This year, Obama won that demographic by 14 points.

Robert Lang, a demographer at the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, said affluent whites in Northern Virginia, like other heavily populated areas in the Northeast and Midwest, "now seem to trust the Democrats with the economy and don't trust the Republicans with civil liberties."

Lang has concluded that Obama would have carried Virginia by about 30,000 votes this year because of Democratic strength in Northern Virginia even if he performed no better in other parts of the state than Kerry did four years ago.

"This is a sign to me the rest of the state is kind of just gravy for Democrats, and Northern Virginia's growth and the changing demographic alone would probably be enough to deliver the state to another Democrat," Lang said.

But Obama also made substantial gains compared with past Democratic statewide candidates in the southern part of the state, largely due to younger voters and blacks.

Although it might be hard for future Democratic candidates to replicate Obama's success downstate, blacks and younger voters proved they can be a formidable electoral demographic.

Downstate counties and cities boasting the largest increases in turnout this year were almost all college towns or home to large black populations.

In Charlottesville, home of the University of Virginia, voter turnout increased by 49 percent this year compared with eight years ago, even though the city's population declined by 10 percent during the same period. Similar trends played out in Williamsburg (home of the College of William and Mary), Montgomery County (Virginia Tech), Harrisonburg (James Madison University) and Fredericksburg (Mary Washington). Voters younger than 30 comprised 21 percent of voters in 2008, up from 17 percent in 2004. Half of these young voters now identify themselves as Democrats, up from 38 percent in 2000.

Blacks, who have been voting Democratic for generations, powered much of their party's strength in areas downstate. There was a substantial increase in turnout and Obama's winning margin in almost all cities and counties where blacks account for at least a third of the population.

In the historically conservative Richmond suburbs, turnout in Henrico County, where blacks make up 27 percent of the population, saw a 32 percent increase in turnout compared with 2000. Obama won the county by 12 percentage points, the same spread Gore lost by in 2000.

Obama also improved on Democratic performance among blacks overall, winning 92 percent of black voters in Virginia compared with Kerry's 87 percent take and Gore's 84 percent.

Jack Wilson, chairman of the 4th District Republican Committee, which includes parts of suburban Richmond, Hampton Roads and southern Virginia, said it will be essential for GOP candidates to win back a greater share of the black vote. In Chesterfield County, another traditionally Republican suburb of Richmond where Obama made dramatic gains, blacks account for 22 percent of the population, up from 17 percent in 2000.

"There is no doubt the percentage and diversity has improved, and that is a good thing for the county, but as a party we have to recognize there are a large number of African American conservatives, and we have to reach out to them and say, 'You are welcome,' " Wilson said.

Staff researcher Meg Smith contributed to this report.