Republicans Must Determine Whether Democrats Have Hit Their Ceiling in N.Va.

President Bush carried Fairfax with 53 percent of the vote in 2000. A year later, Sen.-elect Mark R. Warner (D) won Fairfax with 54 percent of the vote in his race for governor, which, coupled with his appeal downstate, propelled him to victory.

Four years later, Kaine's 60 percent in Fairfax was a major factor in gubernatorial victory.

The next year, Webb got 59 percent of the vote in Fairfax, a big enough showing for him to eke out a 9,000-vote victory statewide.

With Obama receiving 60 percent in Fairfax this year, state Sen. J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen (D-Fairfax) said Democrats might have found their ceiling in the county.

"I think Democrats are kind of maxed out in Fairfax," Petersen said. "The demographics are going to shift but only so much because the county is built out. I have a hard time seeing it going more than 60 percent, but at least it seems consistent right now."

Petersen said that plenty of Republican-majority precincts remain in southern and western Fairfax. Several traditional Republican precincts in Fairfax that went for Webb flipped back to McCain this year. And U.S. Rep. Frank R. Wolf proved this year that a GOP candidate can prevail in Fairfax after he easily swept most of the county's precincts in his district.

Even Republican Senate candidate James S. Gilmore III, who never aired a television ad in Northern Virginia, received 30 percent of the vote in Fairfax. Gilmore's margin, given Warner's broad popularity statewide, represents a solid GOP floor in the county that is not likely to shift toward a Democrat anytime soon, meaning GOP candidates could carry the county if they won over independents.

There are also signs that Democrats have found all the votes they can in Alexandria and Arlington.

The Arlington County Democratic Committee set a goal this year of Warner and Obama winning 80 percent of the vote in the county.

When party Chairman Peter Rousselot set the target, he noted that Kaine and Webb got about three-quarters of the vote in their races, and 83 percent of Arlington residents who voted in the Feb. 12 primary took a Democratic ballot.

But Obama and Warner fell short of reaching that goal: Each received 76 percent of the vote in Arlington.

"It was a stretch of a goal to begin with," Rousselot said after the election. "It was developed to motivate people, and we didn't quite get there."