Republicans Must Determine Whether Democrats Have Hit Their Ceiling in N.Va.

Rousselot, however, said he is optimistic that Democrats could reach that goal in the future, given continued demographic changes in the region.

In an interview a few days after the election, Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), who did not seek reelection, said it would be extremely difficult for Democrats to continue replicating their vote totals in the inner suburbs, given the region's diverse economy.

Tens of thousands of Northern Virginians work for defense contractors or at the Pentagon, and they tend to skew more toward the political right. Northern Virginia is also home to thousands of Republicans who work for public officials or conservative causes in Washington. And on the tax issue, the region's wealth still gives the GOP the upper hand, Davis said. (One reason many newcomers to the area choose to live in Virginia is its low tax rate compared with the District and Maryland.)

Davis added, however, "Republicans can no longer be a rural, white Southern party," if they want to halt Democratic momentum in Northern Virginia.

"NoVa is the future," Davis said. "We have got to address that. It is not just new people moving into the state. It is people who did vote Republican who are no longer voting Republican."

The doomsday scenario for Virginia Republicans wanting to win statewide would be for Democratic trends in Northern Virginia to continue unabated for another decade. Officials in both parties will have to determine whether Fairfax and Virginia's inner suburbs will maintain their own culture, identity and politics, or continue to adopt characteristics of neighboring communities in the Washington area.

Given demographic trends and urbanization in Arlington and Alexandria, residents could one day see voting patterns that resemble those of their neighbors across the Potomac River in the District's Ward 2, Foggy Bottom and the Georgetown area, and Ward 3, upper Northwest. If that were to occur, Rousselot's 80 percent goal would be a reality. Obama carried Ward 2 with 86 percent of the vote and Ward 3 with 83 percent.

And Virginia Republicans can only hope Fairfax voters are not on the path of Montgomery County, also a wealthy Washington suburb of about 1 million residents.

Given its strong allegiance to the Democratic Party, it could be easy to forget that President Ronald Reagan, a Republican, carried Montgomery in 1980 and 1984. Since then, Montgomery voters have made a steady, and apparently irreversible, march toward Democratic presidential candidates.

In 1988, Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis (D) received 51 percent of the vote in his campaign against George H.W. Bush.

Four years later, Bill Clinton (D) won Montgomery with 55 percent of the vote. When Clinton ran for reelection in 1996, the Democratic ticket received 59 percent of the vote in Montgomery.

In 2000, Vice President Al Gore (D) got 62 percent in Montgomery. Four years later, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) received 66 percent of the vote. This year, Obama topped 70 percent of the vote in Montgomery.

That is a trend that should make Virginia Republicans cringe.