Warnings to Combat Burglaries Carry New Urgency During Recession

By Elizabeth Razzi
Sunday, December 7, 2008

They're holiday rituals of the Grinchy sort, annual warnings from local police telling us how to protect ourselves from burglary and theft during the dark, wintry days of the holiday season. Basically, their advice is don't flash what you've got, and do lock up everything you can. It's simple enough and always worth keeping in mind.

But some learned folks are going a step beyond the usual nag, warning us that with so many homes and jobs being lost in this brutal economy, burglary and theft rates will probably increase.

Well, isn't that just the last thing any of us needs now?

Richard Rosenfeld, professor of criminology at the University of Missouri at St. Louis, has studied the matter and sees a link. "Burglaries do tend to increase during times of economic decline and tend to fall during times of economic expansion, and it has been so for decades," he said.

But it's not a simple link to unemployment, he said. Rather, consumer sentiment -- people's perception of how they and the overall economy are faring -- is the best indicator of whether someone is more likely to steal your stuff. The bad news is that consumer sentiment fell in November to the lowest level since 1980, according to a survey by Reuters and the University of Michigan.

Hard times won't work some voodoo that turns your upstanding -- but unemployed -- neighbor into a burglar. In fact, with more unemployed people now spending their days at home, their presence could dampen any trends toward burglary. Most break-ins happen during the work day, while few people are home to notice. FBI statistics show there are 1.75 times more home burglaries during the day than at night. Nearly 68 percent of all burglaries in 2007 were at residences, and typical theft added up to $1,991, according to the FBI.

Instead, a bad economy works its black magic on those who were inclined to steal anyway. And they find a much more lucrative market waiting for them.

"During economic downturns, markets for stolen goods tend to expand," he said. People are more willing to buy things they suspect may have been stolen.

Thus, the people who would ordinarily find themselves tempted to grab a GPS gadget out of the car parked in your driveway, or to break into your house when it's obvious no one is home, find an even greater incentive to commit such crime when the economy tanks.

If you're the one getting robbed, though, it doesn't much matter what motivates the criminal.

I looked at crime statistics reported by local police departments to see if there has been an uptick so far in this recession. Some jurisdictions haven't reported any crime rates for 2008 yet (although you would think by December they might cough up some data from early in the year). From the numbers available so far, it looks like you had better double-check your locks.

In Prince George's County, which is suffering one of the area's highest foreclosure rates, residential burglaries through July were up 17 percent over the same period in 2007. That followed a 7.7 percent annual increase in 2007.

In Prince William County, another foreclosure hot spot, burglaries (from homes and other types of property) were up 4.7 percent through October compared with the same period last year. That's a big reversal from 2007, when burglaries over the course of the year were down 28 percent from 2006.

In Montgomery County, numbers are only available for the first three months of this year, but they show that residential burglaries were up almost 9 percent from a year earlier.

In the District, preliminary data shows an unusual pattern. Through May, burglary rates shot up by 10 to 26 percent each month compared with a year earlier. Then the rates declined by double digits each month, with October's rate 31 percent below last October's rate.

Break-ins are happening to cars parked in home driveways, too. "The number one crime in Montgomery County and other jurisdictions now is theft from auto," said Lt. Paul Starks, a Montgomery police spokesman. Bad guys are going after handbags, laptops, iPods, GPS devices and cell phones, particularly in residential neighborhoods.

Think of these pocketable gadgets as stocking stuffers. The bad guys are. You need to keep them out of sight. Lt. Starks recommends keeping a bag in the car so you can conveniently tote the items between the car and home. Grab it whenever you head out the door for a drive.

Such common-sense moves can protect you from a break-in of your home or car, of course. A touch more cooperation among neighbors can help, too. Here are a few reminders from various experts:

If there are foreclosures in your neighborhood, keep an eye out for squatters who break into empty homes. Police may not recognize that they are not legitimate occupants, and without a homeowner to complain that their property has been entered illegally, police may not pursue the matter. You can take it upon yourself to call your local government's building code enforcement office, or the police department's non-emergency number, to let them know the home is vacant, and authorities may be able to monitor its condition.

Be particularly alert to signs that someone is illegitimately occupying a foreclosed home. The big concern would be that squatters might start a fire for cooking or warmth in a house where the utilities have been turned off.

Force yourself to get outside and interact with neighbors, even when it's cold. You can start a neighborhood watch program (ask the local police department for help). Even the simple act of letting trusted friends know when you expect to be out of town can go a long way toward discouraging break-ins.

Keep some lights on outdoors, and keep the shrubbery trimmed to cut down on hiding places.

Be discreet when discarding the boxes your holiday presents arrived in. Tear up that Nintendo Wii carton and tuck it among other recyclables. Why give the bad guys a shopping list?

And, most important, lock your doors and windows. (Don't forget the garage door!) You don't have to blow the budget on an electronic burglar alarm system when a couple of deadbolt locks can be very effective.

E-mail Elizabeth Razzi at razzie@washpost.com.