GOP Finds an Unlikely New Hero in Louisiana

"We did not see a scenario where a Republican could win that district," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) won the district with 75 percent of the vote in the 2004 presidential race -- Barack Obama's totals in the district last month have not been computed -- and 64 percent of the voting-age population is African American.

Gonzales and other independent handicappers rated more than 70 House races as potential battlegrounds but did not count the Jefferson race among them. Roll Call, the Capitol Hill newspaper, relegated coverage of Cao to its "Under the Radar" feature.

By late November, Cao had spent just $47,000 on his campaign, with nearly $70,000 in loans providing the bulk of his funds. Under indictment, Jefferson still raised more than $800,000, with financial backing from fellow members of the Congressional Black Caucus, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

While his home was ruined by Katrina, a different storm provided a critical opening for Cao to defeat Jefferson. Because Hurricane Gustav came ashore on Labor Day, Louisiana's primary elections were delayed. Jefferson had to make his way through a primary field in October, and then a Democratic runoff Nov. 4. That set up Saturday's race, which experts said would produce low turnout because so many black voters had already turned out in force to vote for Obama and might not return to the polls for a lawmaker awaiting federal trial.

With just 66,000 voters showing up -- almost 100,000 fewer than a month earlier -- Cao beat Jefferson by 2,000 votes, joining another Louisiana Republican, Gov. Bobby Jindal, an Indian American, as a high-profile minority for a party that spent the early part of this decade trying to expand its ethnic reach.

Cao said he hopes his victory will help lead to a "more inclusive" Republican Party. "I hope that I can contribute in my own way to the rebranding," he said.

Combined with John Fleming's victory in another House race in Louisiana on Saturday, and Chambliss's win last week in a Georgia runoff, Cao's triumph has become a GOP rallying point. "Republicans have been victorious in all three elections that have taken place since the presidential contest was decided over a month ago. The party remains a viable alternative," said Ken Spain, the NRCC's spokesman.

After suffering a net loss of 21 seats this fall, following the loss of 30 seats in 2006 and several special-election defeats this past spring, Republicans have been reduced to just 178 House seats. That's the weakest minority since the party entered the 1994 elections with 177 seats, when young guns like Boehner, tired of the GOP's 50-year run in the House minority, crafted an ambitious reform agenda that vaulted them into the majority.

Republicans view Cao's win as a road map back to their roots. "The Cao victory is a symbol of what can be achieved when we think big, present a positive alternative, and work aggressively to earn the trust of the American people," Boehner wrote in his memo. "The Cao victory is a symbol of our future."