Even With Obama, the Black Vote Isn't Certain

RICHMOND

They might still be buoyant over President-elect Barack Obama's success in carrying Virginia this year, but Saturday's election results from Louisiana should give the three Democrats vying to become Virginia's next governor a gut check about their own chances.

In Louisiana's 4th Congressional District, Republican John Fleming appears to have eked out a 365-vote victory over Democrat Paul Carmouche. On the same day, Louisiana voters ousted U.S. Rep. William J. Jefferson (D), who is awaiting trail on corruption charges.

In both those races, as well as the Democrats' failure two weeks ago to unseat Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.), a low turnout among African Americans played a key role in GOP successes.

African Americans make up a larger share of the population in those states than in Virginia, but the results from those three races hold sobering news for Virginia Democrats heading into the 2009 campaigns for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general: Although African Americans turned out in huge numbers this year to support Obama, there is no guarantee they are going to do so without him on the ballot.

As 20 percent of Virginia's population, African Americans are the most reliable source of votes for most Democratic candidates. Without their support and a big turnout, Virginia Democrats still can't win a statewide election.

Obama made gains this year among white Virginia voters, but had it been up to just them, he would have lost the state to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by 21 percentage points, according to exit polls.

But the black vote showed up.

Exit polls indicate that blacks accounted for 20 percent of Virginia's electorate this year, a noteworthy accomplishment given that it is rare for the black vote to match the black share of the population. And as with all surveys, exit polls have a margin of error. Other data suggest that the black turnout in Virginia was even greater.

Petersburg City, where blacks make up 77 percent of the population, experienced a 22 percent increase in turnout this year compared with the 2000 presidential election. Richmond, which is 52 percent black, had a 20 percent increase, as did Norfolk, where 44 percent of the population is black. Obama won the 3rd Congressional District, where blacks make up 56 percent of the population, by 157,000 votes. That's double the margin that Democrat John F. Kerry racked up over President Bush in 2004.

Virginia Republicans hoping to stage a comeback think, probably correctly, that African Americans will turn out in far fewer numbers next year.

For Democrats to win, that number can go only so low. And the three Democratic candidates fighting for the nomination will have to prove between now and the June primary that they have the personality and strategy to engage the black vote next fall.