Even With Obama, the Black Vote Isn't Certain

There is no clear front-runner in this effort, a potentially troubling sign for Democrats hoping to avoid a repeat of last week's elections in Georgia and Louisiana.

Del. Brian J. Moran (Alexandria), former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe and state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (Bath) have never represented large numbers of African Americans.

Moran and McAuliffe reside in Northern Virginia, which has fewer black voters than Richmond and southern and southeastern Virginia. Deeds represents an overwhelmingly white district in the lower Shenandoah Valley.

In the scramble to burnish his credentials with black voters, Moran is paying Del. Lionell Spruill Sr. (D-Chesapeake) $7,500 a month to reach out to the African American community on his behalf. Deeds picked up an endorsement Tuesday from Sen. Henry L. Marsh III (D-Richmond), a veteran civil rights lawyer. McAuliffe has also been reaching out to African Americans.

The candidates might have to do more than rely on others to gin up African American support. But Virginia Democrats often appear more interested in burnishing their credentials with white rural and suburban voters.

Moran, for example, has spent years voting against gun control measures even though he represents liberal Alexandria. Deeds also touts his strong support for the Second Amendment. And Moran and Deeds are strong supporters of capital punishment, despite questions nationwide about whether it is unfairly applied against African Americans.

In recent statewide elections, Virginia Democrats have driven up turnout among African Americans by making the community afraid of the GOP alternative.

In 2006, many African Americans were repulsed by George Allen's use of the word "macaca" and questions about whether he had adequately repudiated his boyhood affinity for the Confederate flag.

In the 2005 governor's race, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) benefited from the decision by his Republican opponent, Jerry W. Kilgore, to partly base his campaign on what he said was a need to execute more Virginia criminals. Kaine had also been the mayor of Richmond, a position he used to help mend racial divisions in that city.

Four years before Kaine's race, Sen.-elect Mark R. Warner (D) campaigned aggressively for white, rural votes in his bid for governor. But Warner's GOP opponent, Mark Earley, frequently touted "Virginia values." (Note to GOP strategists: When African Americans hear the phrase "Virginia values," they think segregation.)

Warner also shared the ticket with Sen. A. Donald McEachin (Richmond), an African American who made an unsuccessful bid for attorney general in 2001.

But there are no African Americans running for statewide office next year. And Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell (R) appears unlikely to repeat the mistakes of his recent predecessors as he runs for governor.

Of course, the eventual Democratic nominee might be able to rely on Obama's campaigning in Virginia next fall on his behalf, which could bolster African American turnout.

L. Douglas Wilder, the nation's first black governor, who also drew records numbers of African Americans to Virginia polls during his race in 1989, cautioned in a recent interview that Virginia Democrats should not pin their hopes on Obama.

"Barack Obama will not be able to wave a magic wand," Wilder said, noting that many African Americans were drawn to the polls because of Obama's message and because he campaigned hard in Virginia. "It isn't going to be easy. . . . It is a question of [blacks] not being taken for granted. . . . I fear someone else will look at Obama's success and say, 'I can do the same thing.' Well, that is like looking at someone else thinking, 'I can wear the same clothes and look that good.' It has to be individualized."

Staff polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.