Now Playing All Along Broadway: Exodus

A Dozen Theaters Will Go Dark as Economy, Timing Prove to Be Show-Stoppers

"Every day a little death," goes Stephen Sondheim's famous lyric. Over the past several weeks, the news out of Broadway has felt like a page from that song.

One after another, high-profile Broadway productions have been announcing that come January, they will breathe their last. Attributable to the global economic crisis and the natural circle of life in the commercial theater, the closings include Tony-winning shows, big-budget musical comedies, well-received revivals and a sputtering newcomer or two.

Factoring in holiday shows and star-driven limited runs of straight plays that already had been programmed to end, about a dozen Broadway houses are to go dark -- an exodus of several million dollars in weekly ticket revenues, and one of the largest mass exits in one fell swoop in memory.

Such brand-name productions as the two-year-old "Young Frankenstein," three-year-old "Spamalot" and six-year-old "Hairspray" are among those saying bye-bye. "Spring Awakening," winner of the 2007 Tony for best musical and one of the most innovative shows to hit Broadway in years, is closing its doors. Departing, too, are "Boeing-Boeing," this year's Tony winner for best play revival; the tepidly reviewed musical "13"; the universally praised "Gypsy" with Patti LuPone; and the revival of "Grease," whose leads were cast on a TV competition program, "Grease: You're the One That I Want."

As with the elk in national parks, January and February are traditionally the months on Broadway for culling the herd. After the Thanksgiving-Christmas rush, ticket sales tank for many shows. Rather than weather the harsh winter, producers clear out the weakest of the pack, making available coveted theaters among the 39 designated Broadway playhouses. Then in the spring, a deluge of new shows normally arrives, productions that seek to make their entrances before the Tony Award eligibility deadline -- in early May in past years but moved up to April 30 in 2009.

But this year, it isn't just the usual smattering of closings. And one thing that seems to be different is the level of fear about the future. Worries about harder times ahead -- in particular, a drying-up of tourist dollars -- have persuaded producers to shutter some shows perhaps a bit ahead of schedule. In the case of "Gypsy," which won LuPone a Tony in June, a planned March closing was moved up to Jan. 11 "due to these uncertain financial times," one of the show's producers, Roger Berlind, said in a statement.

Theater in Washington, dominated by nonprofit, subscription companies, has another set of challenges, mostly to do with sustaining the financial support it receives from wealthy donors, foundations and corporations. Perhaps because it's a smaller industry, and one not dependent on tourism, theater here has not yet shown as many concrete indications of trouble. (Although Arena Stage recently instituted an aggressive ticket-discount program.) In fact, a for-profit pre-Broadway tryout of "West Side Story," running through Jan. 17 at the National Theatre, is reported to be doing brisk box-office business.

On Broadway, other cash-flow issues are starting to emerge as well, early signals that the climate for raising the millions of investor dollars necessary for a major production is getting tougher. Producers of the Broadway revival of the '60s musical "Hair," which was staged to general acclaim in Central Park this summer by the Joseph Papp Public Theater -- and is scheduled to reopen at the Hirschfeld Theater in March -- have had a particularly rough time securing the money for the transfer.

Although some Broadway observers privately raise their eyebrows at the prospect the money will be found, the show's sponsors say the production will most certainly make it to opening night.

" 'Hair' is absolutely going to happen," says Oskar Eustis, artistic director of off-Broadway's Public Theater. "There are way too many people with way too many resources for it not to happen. What's true is that it's been slower raising the money -- big surprise."

The prognosis for Broadway further down the road -- and especially for the next season, which kicks off in September -- is murkier. The bleakest estimates by some business people on Broadway suggest that as few as a dozen shows could be on the boards by late summer. But such medium-term prognosticating can be as treacherous as trying to guess where the Dow will be in a month.

"I think it will make raising capital quite a bit harder, and I think in general, the shows that were shaky to begin with are going to have a harder time," says David Stone, one of the lead producers of the musical juggernaut "Wicked." "But the solid hits -- and there are many of them -- will not have an issue. Nor will limited runs, with stars."

"Wicked," Stone says, has $30 million in advance ticket sales -- a show's hefty "advance" being one of the surer indications of health. Other established cash cows, including "Jersey Boys," "Mamma Mia!," the lavish Lincoln Center revival of "South Pacific" and "The Lion King" don't appear to be on anything close to an endangered list, industry people say -- even if tickets for some are becoming easier to come by on some nights. And many on Broadway think the new, highly praised musical "Billy Elliot" has a promising future.

It's important to remember that once upon a time, Broadway shows came and went much more regularly. Only with the advent of the British mega-musicals, decades-long-running shows such as the now-closed "Cats," did the expectation arise that musicals would run now and forever.

"The truth of it is, everything isn't rosy and everything isn't dire," says Jeffrey Seller, who with Kevin McCollum has produced such critical and popular hits as "Avenue Q" and this year's Tony-winning "In the Heights." (They are also producing "West Side Story," scheduled to open at the Palace Theatre in March.)

"Avenue Q," another Tony winner, has itself been on shaky ground for a while, essentially breaking even for most of the fall. Seller says he can hold the show's weekly running costs to about $250,000 -- very low for a Broadway musical. He adds that he can afford to wait, to see whether business picks up as some of the other, weaker productions fold.

Although a roster of new shows remains on tap to fill some of the empty theaters in the coming months -- the scheduled arrivals range from a musical version of the film comedy "9 to 5" to a new "Waiting for Godot" with Nathan Lane -- no one on Broadway has anything close to a handle on how things might shake out. Yet even in a possible oversupply of playhouses, some producers see an opportunity, in their future dealings with Broadway's theater owners.

"There's a positive development!" Seller says. "Maybe we will have the ability to renegotiate a reasonable rent."