Economy Triggers Security Concerns

The total number of property crimes, including larcenies, burglaries and auto thefts, has increased in nearly all Washington area jurisdictions this year.

The region's overall increase in property crime this year runs counter to the national trend last year, when crimes against persons and property decreased, according to FBI statistics. Locally, the results were generally mixed last year, although some jurisdictions reported more robberies and thefts.

In Prince George's County, burglaries jumped about 8 percent through Nov. 25, compared with the same period last year, while overall crime declined, officials said.

Acting Police Chief Roberto Hylton said some poorly executed crimes make him think the recession has pushed some otherwise lawful people to the brink. He cited the example of a "novice" criminal who recently took a taxi to and from a robbery, leaving a trail of witnesses.

"These are first-time criminals," Hylton said. "They're actually leaving traceable evidence at the scene. . . . They just don't know how to commit a crime."

In neighboring Montgomery County, burglary and theft accounted for most of an increase in crime this year. One significant category was stealing from cars, as thieves snapped up portable GPS devices, MP3 players and other items at a rate 21 percent higher than the same period last year.

"There are a lot of people who live on that edge, where crime is a realistic option," said Montgomery Police Chief J. Thomas Manger.

In Arlington County, property crime climbed 13.5 percent in the first three quarters of the year, fueled largely by a rash of stolen GPS devices from vehicles, easy targets for criminals looking to make quick cash, said Police Chief M. Douglas Scott. The increase could be a "precursor" to worse crime to come as the recession deepens, Scott said.

Not all law enforcement officials share that view, and academic research into the relationship between recession and crime has produced differing results.

Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said property crimes and street robberies, in particular, tend to rise during periods of economic trouble. On the other hand, during the Great Depression of the 1930s, overall crime fell, although that might have been attributable to the end of Prohibition and to the New Deal public works projects that put many young men to work, researchers said.

Fairfax County Police Chief David M. Rohrer is one of the skeptics. He said the economy is just one of many factors that influence crime, and it is too early to say whether it is having a significant effect. Property crime in the county, which has a population of about 1 million, increased 12 percent in the first three quarters of the year, while violent crime fell by about 10 percent. But property crime has been rising in Fairfax for two years now, predating the economic downturn, he said.

"I just don't think that the sky is going to be falling as far as crime," Rohrer said. "I don't think a law abiding citizen today is going to turn to crime tomorrow because of the downturn."