Israel's Top Leaders Weighing Their Next Steps in Gaza

Palestinians eat at a U.N. school where they are sheltering in northern Gaza. Intense fighting was reported near Gaza City as Israel tightened its cordon. (By Hatem Moussa -- Associated Press)

Officials and analysts say Israel's top three political leaders disagree over how the remainder of the war should play out. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is said to favor an expansion, while Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are believed to be more hesitant. Barak has aggressively pushed the talks in Egypt; Livni has said that Israel can soon declare victory and withdraw. The three run the country together and must achieve consensus before Israel can act.

Olmert spokesman Mark Regev acknowledged that Barak, Livni and Olmert don't always see eye-to-eye, but said they have agreed on the war's aims. "It's probably a very good thing that we don't have group-think at the top levels of the Israeli government," he said.

In an interview with Israel Radio on Monday, Livni said Israel had succeeded in proving to Hamas it is serious about deterrence.

"Israel is a country that reacts vigorously when its citizens are fired upon, which is a good thing," she said. "That is something that Hamas now understands, and that is how we are going to react in the future if they so much as dare fire one missile at Israel." Israel and the United States consider Hamas a terrorist organization.

Gabriel Sheffer, a political scientist at Hebrew University, said politics may play a role in the differing opinions among the three. In elections slated for Feb. 10, both Barak and Livni are hoping to succeed Olmert, who is stepping down under an ethics cloud. "If the number of Israeli casualties goes up, the effect on Barak and Livni will be very bad," he said. "Olmert has nothing to lose."

Sheffer said U.S. politics may also be a factor: Israel probably does not want to be fighting a war when President-elect Barack Obama is inaugurated next week, he said.

As international pressure to end the war has mounted, Obama has largely stayed out of the debate over whether Israel should be allowed to continue its offensive, while President Bush has staunchly backed the Jewish state. In his final news conference as president, Bush again asserted Israel's "right to defend herself" and called on Hamas to stop its rocket fire.

"There will not be a sustainable cease-fire if they continue firing rockets," he said. "I happen to believe the choice is Hamas's to make."

Hamas and its allies continued to fire rockets into southern Israel on Monday, launching more than 20. There were no reports of major injuries, and the number was significantly down from earlier in the war, when Hamas was launching 40 per day or more.

"The organization has lost much of its willingness to fight," said Shlomo Dror, spokesman for Israel's Defense Ministry. "It's much less than we anticipated."

Military analysts, however, have warned that Hamas could be saving its ammunition, with plans to launch urban warfare if Israeli troops push into Gaza's cities and camps.

Ahmed Qassim, a 30-year-old insurance salesman, said Hamas fighters had moved into densely populated parts of Gaza City in recent days and were using residential neighborhoods as bases for firing rockets. But he blamed Israel for the civilian casualties that result when the military strikes at those fighters. "The Israelis are so powerful and they have so much technology," he said. "They should be able to tell the difference between the resistance and civilians."

The Israeli military has not allowed foreign journalists into Gaza to work independently. But the military on Monday permitted a small group of reporters to travel with troops into the strip. A Reuters journalist reported from the outskirts of Gaza City that soldiers said they were meeting little resistance, but that they were pushing into urban centers to try to draw Palestinian fire.

"We are tightening the encirclement of the city," Brig. Eyal Eisenberg said, according to Reuters. "We are not static. We are careful to be constantly on the move."

Special correspondent Reyham Abdel Kareem in Gaza City contributed to this report.