Fairfax Chairman Race May Be Tight

Candidates competing to become Fairfax County's next Board of Supervisors chairman face at least two big challenges as a Feb. 3 special election quickly approaches: how to lead the region's largest jurisdiction through its toughest budget crisis in a generation -- and how to persuade voters to care.

Vice Chairman Sharon S. Bulova (D-Braddock) has promised to show fiscal restraint while also continuing the leadership of former chairman Gerald E. Connolly, who won a seat in Congress in November after years expanding county schools, housing programs and environmental protections. Supervisor Pat S. Herrity (R-Springfield) is campaigning to cut wasteful spending and keep taxes down.

Low turnout projections have prompted some to predict that this election could go either way, rendering blue Fairfax, home of one in seven Virginians, an unexpected battleground. If Republicans win, they will head toward fall elections for governor and the General Assembly with an unexpected rallying cry. If Democrats win, they retain the momentum that they have built in recent elections.

Either way, the chairman's race is likely to be less a referendum on ideas than a reflection of who can spend more money and coax more voters to the polls.

"Special elections bring lower turnout," said Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), whose political committee just wrote Bulova a check for $25,000. "People aren't naturally conditioned to vote in a chairman's race in February, so that requires some special attention."

The attention grew more intense last week, after a special legislative election in deep blue Alexandria that Democrat Charniele Herring won by just 16 votes. The results surprised Republicans and Democrats alike -- and they all quickly saw how symbolically significant the Fairfax race had become.

"If this isn't a wakeup call, I don't know what is," Scott Surovell, chairman of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee, wrote in an e-mail to activists. "We all stand to be thoroughly embarrassed if we don't motivate our people to get out and work right now. The Republicans are hungry for a victory. Please do all you can to get the word out NOW."

Bulova, 61, is a close ally of Connolly's and a natural heir for voters who approved of his leadership. A 21-year veteran of the board, she has been part of an 8-to-2 Democratic majority that has made its top priority the protection or expansion of some government programs. This majority has been rewarded, according to recent polls and electoral results, with deep satisfaction among county residents. Bulova's central campaign message is to assure voters that she will continue the county on its same course.

"Fairfax is a great place to live, to raise our families, to work, to grow older comfortably," she said at a candidate debate last week hosted by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce. "I want to make sure we continue in that positive direction."

The race is complicated for her, however, by the strength and popularity of Herrity, whose successful career as a corporate accountant is drawing him support from the county's well-organized business community. Herrity, 48, also benefits from sharing a surname with his late father, John F. "Jack" Herrity, who was board chairman for 12 years a generation ago and is the namesake of a major highway and government building in the heart of Fairfax.

With promises to trim programs and keep taxes flat, Herrity, who just completed his first year on the board, is also assuming that the soured economy and fallen property values have prompted a change of heart among voters about county spending. His overall message, in fact, rests on a gamble that residents want change.

"We're facing some very serious challenges in Fairfax," Herrity said at the chamber debate against Bulova. (Two independent candidates, Christopher DeCarlo and Carey Campbell, did not participate.) "Despite doubling our taxes in the last five to seven years, we've got a $650 million shortfall. We have among the worst traffic congestion in the country. Our schools have serious challenges."

By some measures, Herrity's message -- not to mention his party affiliation -- is not in step with the majority of Fairfax residents. Connolly won his last two elections (to Congress in November and to a second term as chairman in 2007) touting his record at the county helm and also touting the fact that he is a Democrat.

"Pat has spent the entire first year he's been on the board attacking redevelopment plans in Tysons Corner, attacking rail to Dulles, attacking affordable housing, attacking a gazillion other issues to show how he is different," Connolly said. "Well, there's a role for that, but it's not to be chairman. How can you with a straight face tell people you have the capacity to bring people together? That would condemn the county to political instability for the next three years."

Low turnout projections have prompted political leaders to take nothing for granted. It's why Kaine and Connolly are pitching in, and it's why Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, the Republican nominee for governor, is pitching in for Herrity.

Phil Cox, McDonnell's campaign manager, said the campaign is helping Herrity with paid canvassers who are going door-to-door to get out the vote. Cox said the chairman's race is likely to be decided on local issues and the relative strengths of the campaigns. But he acknowledged the appeal to McDonnell and other Virginia Republicans of going into the fall elections with a victory in Fairfax. "We always like to win," he said.

Connolly predicted that the close count in last week's Alexandria election ultimately will hurt Herrity in the chairman's race.

"The bad news for him is that the bell has rung," Connolly said. "And the Democrats heard it."