Franken Has the Lead, but Coleman Has His Day in Court

The trial is expected to last three to four weeks, at which point we should know who the winner is -- unless there's an appeal to the state Supreme Court.

Blue to Red, Red to Blue

In 2008, gubernatorial races were the ugly stepchild of the election family. With just 11 races on the docket, the guvs were drastically overshadowed by the historic presidential race, Senate Democrats' push for 60 seats and an expanded Democratic majority in the House.

No longer.

As Republicans seek to pick up the pieces from shattering electoral losses, party strategists have made it clear that they will look to the states -- and governors in particular -- for the next generation of leaders. President Obama, too, understands the import of gubernatorial races in 2010; he named Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee at least in part because of Kaine's record of running for and winning the top job in a purple state.

And, with the decennial census set for 2010 and a nationwide redistricting (in which the lines of every congressional district in the country are redrawn) to follow in 2011, control of governor's mansions is even more critical in this election.

All that adds up to tremendous volatility and intrigue -- two of The Fix's favorite words. Here are the five governorships likely to switch parties in 2010:

5. Oklahoma (Democratic-controlled). An open seat in the reddest state in the country (according to the 2008 presidential election) spells big trouble for Democrats. The Democratic field is surprisingly strong, with state Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who is well known in Sooner State politics, and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins both in the race. But, given the partisan nature of the state, almost any Republican will start off the general election as the favorite.

4. Hawaii (Republican-controlled). It's hard to imagine that Democrats won't win back the president's home state when this seat comes open in 2010. Gov. Linda Lingle (R) doesn't get enough credit nationally for her political savvy, but Hawaii's strong Democratic roots make it tough to build any sort of long-term Republican success. Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) is the heir apparent to the Lingle legacy but doesn't get the same rave reviews Lingle drew when she was running in 2002. Democrats have yet to sort themselves out.

3. Kansas (D). As with Oklahoma, the underlying Republicanism of Kansas makes this a very tough hold for Democrats in an open-seat situation. Democratic recruiters still hold out hope that Rep. Dennis Moore will consider the race, but that seems like wishful thinking. The only other major Democratic candidate mentioned is state Treasurer Dennis McKinney. Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is returning home to run for governor and is the favorite.

2. Rhode Island (R). By the numbers, this is a seat Democrats should control. Obama won the state with 63 percent of the vote. And a number of high-profile Democrats are lining up for the race, while there are no obvious Republican stars. The X factor? Former senator Lincoln Chafee, who is contemplating a bid as an independent.

1. Wyoming (D). Don't be fooled by the success of term-limited Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D). Wyoming is still rock-ribbed Republican country, and this seat is going to be an almost impossible hold for Democrats.

Players

Matthew Miller, who spearheaded the communications operation at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee during the 2008 election, is moving inside the walls of the Obama administration as chief spokesman for the Justice Department. With Eric H. Holder Jr. expected to be confirmed as attorney general this week, Miller will be jumping from the frying pan into the fire. He's had good practice. Before working under Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) at the DSCC, Miller was communications director for the successful 2006 Senate campaign of Robert Menendez (D-N.J.).