New Thai Premier Seen as Leaning Right; Reformists Worry

BANGKOK -- When Abhisit Vejjajiva became Thailand's prime minister last month, he promised to bridge the country's deep political divisions, but recent challenges have seen his administration move sharply to the right.

Abhisit's unquestioning support for the Thai military in the face of allegations that it recently towed hundreds of Burmese refugees out to sea on engineless barges and left them there with little food or water has convinced many people that the new leader's reformist agenda has been compromised. More than 500 refugees, all members of the Rohingya ethnic minority, reportedly died.

Political analysts say the government is paying the price for a Faustian bargain it made to get into power: It finds itself in thrall to an invigorated military, and its continued ability to run the country is dependent on placating the far-right groups that occupied Thailand's two main airports last year, with catastrophic economic consequences.

"It is the military's dividend for putting Abhisit in power: They can now dictate policy," says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

Abhisit took office Dec. 17 after six months of right-wing street demonstrations had virtually crippled the previous government. He won a controversial parliamentary vote in which he managed to persuade enough ruling party lawmakers to cross the floor to support him.

The military is widely believed to have weighed in on Abhisit's side to encourage waverers, although the head of the army said at the time that he was merely advising lawmakers who came to his house, not interfering in the country's politics.

Abhisit now appears reluctant to criticize the military. Days after it emerged that groups of starving and dehydrated refugees who had been picked up by Indian and Indonesian authorities were accusing the Thai military of arresting them before taking them back out to sea, the prime minister issued a blanket denial.

"Let's be clear that Thailand has not violated the human rights of the refugees," Abhisit said. "The military has maintained that it has not breached any humanitarian principles on this issue."

Continuing revelations have forced him to order an investigation, but the Internal Security Operations Command, the body he has appointed to carry it out, is part of the national security apparatus that is accused of playing a key role in the scandal.

By early this week, the government had modified its line.

"If officers are found guilty of these alleged violations, they will be prosecuted," Abhisit's spokesman, Panitan Wattanayagorn, said Tuesday. But analysts held out little hope of getting to the bottom of the scandal.

"He appears to have done things correctly, but in fact he has done nothing at all," Chris Baker, the author of several books on Thailand's convoluted politics, said of Abhisit. "I doubt very much anyone in the military will suffer for this."