How would we know the plan was meeting its goal of saving or creating 3 to 4 million jobs?
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6. Job-creation targets are one of the more slippery components of the stimulus plan. The basic answer: We could compare the nation's employment picture at the end of 2010 to what widely accepted forecasts have said it would be without a stimulus package. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated that without a stimulus plan, unemployment would peak at above 9 percent next year. The stimulus plan, they estimate, would save or create anywhere from 1.2 million to 3.6 million jobs by the end of next year, a huge range that underscores the fluidity of economic forecasting, particularly in volatile times. The Obama administration, meanwhile, has projected that the economy would add or retain 3.3 million to 4.1 million jobs as a result of the stimulus plan. With the plan, unemployment, now 7.2 percent, would be 7 percent at the end of next year, nearly two points below what it would be without the plan, according to the administration's analysis.
