The Mad Dash for a Bid

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By Eric Prisbell

Sunday, March 1, 2009

With two weeks remaining until the NCAA tournament selection committee unveils the 65-team bracket, several teams are making frantic attempts to secure one of the 34 at-large berths. A number of prominent yet inconsistent teams remain in contention because it has been a down year for mid-majors and because many teams' profiles are particularly mediocre.

Georgetown (15-12)
RPI: 47
Schedule: Tuesday at St. John's
Saturday vs. DePaul
Big East tournament
The Hoyas got a must-have victory at Villanova. Problem is that's their last chance to impress committee members in the regular season. Georgetown has played the nation's toughest schedule and can hang its hat on a road win at Connecticut and a home victory against Memphis. But the Hoyas are just 7-11 against the top 100 in the Ratings Percentage Index. In addition to finishing 8-10 in the Big East, they will need to win two or three games in the conference tournament.

Kentucky (19-10)
RPI: 61
Schedule: Wednesday vs. Georgia
Saturday at Florida
SEC tournament
One team that is playing its way out of the field is Kentucky, which lost at home to LSU for the first time in 20 years. To stay in the hunt, the Wildcats, who have an RPI ranking in the 60s and are 4-5 against the top 50, will need to beat Georgia and Florida to close the regular season. A poor RPI does not guarantee tournament exclusion, but no team with an RPI worse than 63 has earned an at-large bid in recent years.

Notre Dame (16-12)
RPI: 72
Schedule: Tomorrow vs. Villanova
Friday vs. St. John's
Big East tournament
The best Notre Dame can do is finish 8-10 in the Big East, and that can occur only if the Irish beat Villanova and St. John's. A losing conference record also does not guarantee exclusion from the NCAA tournament, but an RPI ranking in the low 70s will not cut it; neither will a 4-12 record against the RPI's top 100. If the Irish don't make serious noise in the Big East tournament, they are destined for the NIT.

Penn State (20-9)
RPI: 63
Schedule: Thursday vs. Illinois
Saturday at Iowa
Big Ten tournament
By beating Indiana yesterday, Penn State avoided what would have been a damaging loss. The Nittany Lions have secured at least a .500 record in the Big Ten and have two top 25 victories to their credit. But they have a poor RPI and a less-than-impressive strength of schedule rating. Which means, like many teams clinging to hope this late in the season, they still have work to do, and Thursday's game against Illinois might provide the best opportunity.

Virginia Tech (17-11)
RPI: 55
Schedule: Wednesday vs. UNC
March 8 at Florida State
ACC tournament
Virginia Tech is just one win away from securing at least a .500 record in the ACC. But the Hokies' late-season schedule has been brutal. The Hokies, who squandered a chance to solidify their position yesterday against Duke, are 8-7 in road and neutral-court games, and all three of their top 50 victories have come on the road. It's hard not to wonder how the Hokies would be viewed had Xavier not beaten them with a half-court buzzer-beating shot.

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	Georgetown (15-12) RPI: 47 Schedule: Tuesday at St. John's Saturday vs. DePaul Big East tournament	The Hoyas got a must-have victory at Villanova. Problem is that's their last chance to impress committee members in the regular season. Georgetown has played the nation's toughest schedule and can hang its hat on a road win at Connecticut and a home victory against Memphis. But the Hoyas are just 7-11 against the top 100 in the Ratings Percentage Index. In addition to finishing 8-10 in the Big East, they will need to win two or three games in the conference tournament.
	Kentucky (19-10) RPI: 61 Schedule: Wednesday vs. Georgia Saturday at Florida SEC tournament	One team that is playing its way out of the field is Kentucky, which lost at home to LSU for the first time in 20 years. To stay in the hunt, the Wildcats, who have an RPI ranking in the 60s and are 4-5 against the top 50, will need to beat Georgia and Florida to close the regular season. A poor RPI does not guarantee tournament exclusion, but no team with an RPI worse than 63 has earned an at-large bid in recent years.
	Notre Dame (16-12) RPI: 72 Schedule: Tomorrow vs. Villanova Friday vs. St. John's Big East tournament	The best Notre Dame can do is finish 8-10 in the Big East, and that can occur only if the Irish beat Villanova and St. John's. A losing conference record also does not guarantee exclusion from the NCAA tournament, but an RPI ranking in the low 70s will not cut it; neither will a 4-12 record against the RPI's top 100. If the Irish don't make serious noise in the Big East tournament, they are destined for the NIT.
	Penn State (20-9) RPI: 63 Schedule: Thursday vs. Illinois Saturday at Iowa Big Ten tournament	By beating Indiana yesterday, Penn State avoided what would have been a damaging loss. The Nittany Lions have secured at least a .500 record in the Big Ten and have two top 25 victories to their credit. But they have a poor RPI and a less-than-impressive strength of schedule rating. Which means, like many teams clinging to hope this late in the season, they still have work to do, and Thursday's game against Illinois might provide the best opportunity.
	Virginia Tech (17-11) RPI: 55 Schedule: Wednesday vs. UNC March 8 at Florida State ACC tournament	Virginia Tech is just one win away from securing at least a .500 record in the ACC. But the Hokies' late-season schedule has been brutal. The Hokies, who squandered a chance to solidify their position yesterday against Duke, are 8-7 in road and neutral-court games, and all three of their top 50 victories have come on the road. It's hard not to wonder how the Hokies would be viewed had Xavier not beaten them with a half-court buzzer-beating shot.