By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, March 5, 2009
RICHMOND
Now that Virginia legislators have left the state Capitol, the battle is on for control of the House of Delegates.
Democrats will be trying in the November election to pick up the six seats needed to regain control of the House, which the GOP captured in 1999.
A Democratic takeover would probably elevate House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong (Henry) to the speaker's chair. Armstrong often jokes that he hasn't put any pictures on the walls of his office in the Capitol because he doesn't plan to stay long.
Armstrong is trying to raise several million dollars to help finance Democrats' efforts to regain the majority. He will be aided by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, the new chairman of the Democratic National Committee, as well as the eventual Democratic nominee for governor.
In an interview last week, Kaine took a more realistic approach when it came to assessing Democrats' chances. In a comment that infuriated some House Democrats, Kaine said he thinks his party has a 40 percent chance to retake the House.
"What are the chances on the House side that we are going to win? I would say maybe 40 percent," Kaine said. "But that is a good enough percentage to say, 'Let's go after it, and who knows, we might get a break or two with retirements. We might get a break or two in a primary.' "
Kaine quickly noted that at this stage of the election cycle in 2007, he would have pegged Democrats' chances to retake the Senate at about 35 percent. But several conservative Republican candidates emerged from the party primaries, and suddenly Democrats were playing offense in eight GOP-held Senate seats. They won half of the 2007 contests, giving them the majority in the Senate for the first time since 1997.
Democrats also picked up four House seats in that election, which, along with another win in a special election a few weeks later, laid the groundwork for their efforts this year to regain the majority.
In 2007, however, House and Senate Republicans appeared to be in disarray when it came to campaign strategy and candidate recruitment. Leaders of the Virginia GOP vow that they will not make the same mistakes this year. House Speaker William J. Howell (Stafford) is planning a national fundraising tour and the GOP candidate recruitment process has been underway for months.
Democrats could also find themselves in search of a unifying rallying cry this year.
In 2007, Democrats benefited from voter frustration with the Bush administration and the war in Iraq. Democrats also gained traction by highlighting the role that House and Senate Republicans played in enacting new bad-driver fees. The penalties have been repealed.
So far this year, there is no defining issue for the House races. Instead, there might be 100 individualized races in which local issues determine who prevails.
Still, Armstrong maintains that he likes his party's odds this year. Democrats will be concentrating on the 15 Republicans in districts that President Obama carried in the fall. The Virginia GOP will focus on the seven Democrats who represent districts won by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the presidential race, as well as several freshman delegates.
Although a lot can change before fall, both parties are beginning to telegraph their strategies. The Democrats are planning to pour resources into Northern Virginia to target Fairfax Republican Dels. David B. Albo, Thomas Davis Rust and Timothy B. Hugo.
Scott Surovell, chairman of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee, said local Democrats plan to raise at least $80,000 to target Albo, Rust and Hugo.
Republicans, meanwhile, will be out to prove that the GOP brand is not permanently damaged in Northern Virginia. House Republicans are looking to field formidable opponents to Democratic Dels. C. Charles Caputo (Fairfax) and David E. Poisson (Loudoun). Some Republicans are also talking about targeting freshman Del. Margaret G. Vanderhye (Fairfax), a Democrat who represents McLean.
Both parties will also direct considerable resources to Prince William County. Obama won nearly 58 percent of the vote in Prince William last year, but four of the five delegates who represent the county in Richmond are Republicans.
Democrats are targeting the seat of Del. Jeffrey M. Frederick, who represents the increasingly Democratic eastern part of the county. Frederick, chairman of the state Republican Party, is giving up his post. But his wife, Amy, may run for the GOP nomination. Republicans also expect Democrats to invest heavily in campaigns against Del. Robert G. Marshall (Prince William) or Jackson H. Miller (Manassas).
Republicans plan to go after freshman Del. Paul F. Nichols (Prince William).
If Republicans can unseat even one or two Democratic incumbents, Democrats will have trouble picking up six seats. That's one reason the Republicans will be on the offensive in Virginia Beach. The GOP is hoping to unseat freshman Dels. Joseph F. Bouchard and Robert W. Mathieson, two Democrats who were elected in 2007. Bouchard and Mathieson are both well known in their communities.
Democrats are responding to the GOP threat in Virginia Beach by taking on Del. Harry R. "Bob" Purkey.
Both parties also plan to go after their rival's House leader. Republicans are vowing to field a strong candidate to take on Armstrong, who represents parts of Henry County. Democrats have responded by getting George Schwartz, chairman of the Stafford County Board of Supervisors, to run against Howell.
Armstrong and Howell are formidable candidates for reelection, but every day that they are forced to campaign in their own district is one less they'll have to campaign or raise money in others.
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