In Missouri, Senate Race Represents Struggle for Reins of GOP

Missouri has long been a swing state at the presidential level. In 2010, it will play host to a Senate primary that is already being painted by some insiders as a fight for the future of the Republican Party.

The players: Rep. Roy Blunt and former state treasurer Sarah Steelman.

Blunt has spent more than a decade representing Missouri's 7th District and, until late last year, served in his party's House leadership. Steelman was a Missouri state senator for six years before being elected treasurer in 2004. She ran for governor in 2008, losing narrowly in the Republican primary to then-Rep. Kenny Hulshof.

Blunt was the first Republican in the race to replace Sen. Christopher S. Bond (R), who is retiring after three terms, but Steelman is almost certain to run and is in talks with top national party strategists, including John Weaver, who was a top campaign adviser to Sen. John McCain. (Steelman endorsed the Arizonan for president in 2000 and 2008.)

"Sarah Steelman is a breath of fresh air for our party," Weaver said. "However I'm involved, I'm sure this conservative reformer will be the next senator from Missouri."

Steelman sent a letter to the Missouri Republican Party last weekend taking issue with a recent attack on Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, the likely Democratic nominee, over her opposition to earmarks.

"The Missouri Republican Party should not proclaim earmark spending a virtue," Steelman wrote. "It is not. This does nothing but harm the efforts of principled politicians of both parties. . . . The old ways can no longer be tolerated."

The Blunt forces were quick to reject this proposed dynamic -- a smart strategy, given the disdain for which politicians (particularly those in Washington) are held. They note that Steelman's husband, David, is the former Republican leader of the Missouri House and that her father-in-law is a past state GOP chairman.

It's hard to see, however, how Blunt will be able to be anything but the insider in the race -- given all the years he spent atop the House leadership. At issue is whether Steelman can emerge as a credible outsider candidate given the establishment forces lining up (organizationally and financially) behind Blunt.

As Republicans fight for the heart and soul of the party at the national level -- moderate Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman or conservative South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford -- the same battle is playing out down-ballot in contests like this one in Missouri.

Next Year Looms Large

Speaking of the Senate, Democrats have been reminded of late -- the economic stimulus plan, the omnibus spending bill -- of the tenuousness of the 58 seats they control.

With Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (Mass.) battling brain cancer and the Minnesota race still up in the air, Democrats need three Republicans to cross the aisle to avoid the threat of a GOP filibuster on any major legislation from President Obama.