Argentine Politics Reacts to Financial Woes

Shift in Election Timing Is Calculated to Beat Bad News, President's Critics Say

BUENOS AIRES -- Time is not on Francisco de Narváez's side, so he excused himself from an interview at the Buenos Aires airport this week and hurried onto the tarmac to catch his helicopter for a three-town campaign blitz.

Until last week, De Narváez, an opposition congressman running for reelection, had seven months to make his case for why he is a better candidate than his expected opponent: Néstor Kirchner, a former president and the husband of the current president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. But last week, legislators approved the president's plan to move up the congressional elections by four months, from late October to June 28, and De Narváez was left with just 88 days to fit in 158 planned campaign stops and fulfill his pledge to visit every town in Buenos Aires province.

"The change in the schedule clearly shows that the government is running into hard times," De Narváez said. When governments are "feeling weak," it is normal to advance elections, he said, but "I'm ready for the fight."

As the financial crisis dims Argentina's economic prospects, Fernández de Kirchner is trying to play the polls to her advantage, critics say.

Fernández de Kirchner said it would be "suicide" to waste months on campaigning when legislators should be focused on battling the financial crisis. But many here see the move as a calculated political strategy to hold the elections -- to some degree a plebiscite on her rule -- before more ominous financial numbers emerge later this year, and before a fragmented opposition can solidify its alliances against her party.

In other Latin American countries as well, such as Venezuela and Ecuador, political leaders have driven hard to hold referendums and elections as fast as possible before the crisis worsens.

Falling commodity prices, the international credit crunch and a drop in demand for many of the region's exports have slowed several once-robust Latin American economies. The Inter-American Development Bank this week projected that Latin America's seven largest economies -- including Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela -- could face an average growth rate of 0.1 percent annually over the next five years if developed countries do not begin recovering this year. Between 2003 and 2007, those seven economies grew at an average of 5.8 percent annually.

Venezuela's populist government, in a matter of weeks, organized a referendum in February to scrap term limits for President Hugo Chávez. Wielding every apparatus of government to marshal support, including state television and public funds to buy appliances for voters, Chávez easily won and all but announced he will run for reelection in 2012.

To many economic and political analysts, the government's quick action was easy to understand: the price of oil, which accounts for 93 percent of Venezuela's exports, had plunged since peaking last July.

Venezuela's economic growth in 2008 fell to less than 5 percent from 8.4 percent the previous year, and economists had begun to forecast that the country's oil-fueled economy would contract by at least 1 percent this year. For the government, it became clear that the chances of winning the referendum would be better earlier in the year than later, when Venezuelans are expected to feel the economic crunch.

Chávez did not hide his wish for an expeditious vote. "We need to do this fast," he said in November.

Ecuador, also heavily reliant on oil exports, moved rapidly to hold an April 26 general election, in which Ecuadorans are expected to reelect President Rafael Correa. In September, voters approved a new constitution that gave Correa, who was first elected in 2006, the chance to run for two consecutive four-year terms. Some members of the Constituent Assembly criticized him for rushing to finish the constitution.