The Young-Armed Nats, Out on a Limb

If you want Opening Day optimism, as is every fan's birthright, then here it comes. After 102 defeats last year, Nationals fans deserve a day of mercy. But wear your helmet. You'll get the flip side of the story, too.

The biggest cause for hope for the Nats is neither the addition of Adam Dunn, nor the health, for now, of first baseman Nick Johnson, nor even the logjam of hitters in right field. The reason the Nats can dream of being one of the game's most improved teams is their extremely young pitching rotation. No one doubts it could be a calamity. But what if it is adequate, or even shows signs of strength?

As a rookie last season, John Lannan, who will start the opener today in Miami, started 31 games. In 18, he pitched at least six innings and gave up two runs or less. I call such games "quality-plus" starts. The southpaw got minuscule run support, went 9-15 and was little noticed outside D.C.

How many quality-plus starts did the two Cy Young Award winners produce? Cliff Lee (22-3) had 20 and Tim Lincecum (18-5) posted 19. They were more dominant and pitched deeper into games; Lannan's arm was protected and he never went more than 7 1/3 innings. But he was one of baseball's best-kept secrets.

If he has a similar year (far from a given), he may be 15-9.

In Florida this spring, Jordan Zimmermann faced 59 hitters and fanned 20 while walking only two. That's the highest ratio of strikeouts to batters faced of any starting pitcher in exhibition ball. His 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio was third best. A small sampling? Absolutely. But foes raved, not just Nats. A few pundits now pick him to be rookie of the year. But, at 22, he's never pitched above Class AA. His debut as the fifth starter is April 19. Circle it.

Finally comes Shairon Martis, 22. Manager Manny Acta, after watching Lannan and Zimmermann sparkle, said that the poised, precise and compact Martis, with the speed-changing repertoire of a vet, had been his best pitcher this spring. On Saturday against the Orioles at Nationals Park, as he allowed 10 hits, several on bloops, and base runners surrounded him, Martis shook off a three-run homer and turned in a calm quality start in the final exhibition game of the spring.

That's the buzz. And it is all true. The Nats also have Scott Olsen, 25, who had a 4.20 ERA in 201 2/3 innings for Florida last season and has started 97 games in the past three seasons: a consistent innings eater who may improve.

What a fine bunch of young arms, right? Can you keep your heart inside your chest? And the Nats also have Collin Balester, 22, waiting at Class AAA Syracuse if Daniel Cabrera, who was bad late last year (elbow sprain) and struggled all spring, should lose his rotation spot. And then there's that No. 1 overall draft pick in June. Ticketed for Stephen Strasburg?

However, there's another side. And it is true, all too true, as well. Kid pitchers will age a manager quicker than sloe gin and fast living. Manny Acta, 40, is the youngest skipper in the majors. But by July, he may feel like he's 70. The same young starters who could make him manager of the year could also make him the Nats' former manager.

"We'll go as far as our young pitching takes us," he said Saturday. "Wish me luck." Ohhh, Manny knows.

Even if Cabrera, 27, is functional, the Nats still have one of the youngest, least-proven staffs you'll ever see. And these young gentlemen are not the elite of their profession, the first-round draft picks or power arms.