This Filly Is Worth Gamble

The cardinal rule of managing thoroughbreds is to handle them judiciously and to avoid asking them for more than they can deliver. Because the conservative course is usually the best one, many owners and trainers won't even consider running fillies against colts.

But there are also situations when people in the racing game must be bold and seize a moment of opportunity. It's not always easy to distinguish a smart, aggressive gamble from a reckless one. That is the choice that owner Jess Jackson faces.

Jackson and a partner, Harold McCormick, bought the filly Rachel Alexandra after she scored a phenomenal 20 1/4 -length victory in the Kentucky Oaks, a performance every bit as impressive as Mine That Bird's victory in the Derby the next day. Jackson eventually intends to breed the filly to his stallion Curlin, but he has a more pressing issue to consider. Should he pay a $100,000 supplemental fee to run his filly against colts in the Preakness Stakes?

There are compelling arguments for doing so. Indeed, I tried to present those arguments a few days ago to Dolphus Morrison, the breeder and then the co-owner of Rachel Alexandra. The word "Preakness" had barely passed my lips when Morrison said: "Not a chance. To run her back in two weeks [after the Oaks] would be absolutely insane. That would be the most irresponsible thing we could ever do."

Certainly, there is historical evidence suggesting that Rachel Alexandra shouldn't attempt this feat. While fillies often beat colts in the fall, they generally don't fare as well in the spring and summer. The last filly to win the Preakness was Nellie Morse in 1924. The last filly to try was Excellent Meeting, who failed to finish the 1999 race. And no one will forget that Eight Belles, the last filly to compete in a Triple Crown event, died after finishing second in the 2008 Kentucky Derby.

Yet these daunting precedents may be irrelevant to Rachel Alexandra. She is a unique case. She obviously possesses great talent -- though talent alone isn't a sufficient reason to run her in the Preakness. If this were 2007, and rivals such as Curlin and Street Sense were in the field, challenging the colts would be foolish. But with extraordinary good timing, Rachel Alexandra has established herself as a near-superstar just as the injury-riddled crop of 3-year-old males has displayed its mediocrity. Rachel Alexandra's Beyer Speed Figure of 108 was the best Oaks win in more than 20 years, and there is no ambulatory 3-year-old colt who can match it.

The top two members of the generation, I Want Revenge and Quality Road, are sidelined with injuries. In their absence, the million-to-one shot Mine That Bird was able to win the Derby with a figure of 105. This might have been a once-in-a-lifetime performance, a result of the gelding's fondness for the sloppy track. If he doesn't duplicate that effort at Pimlico on May 16, Rachel Alexandra would have a towering advantage over all the Preakness entrants (the best of whom ran figures of 95 in the Derby). America's horseplayers will surely see it that way; if the filly runs, she will be a clear-cut favorite.

Rachel Alexandra moved yesterday to the barn of her new trainer, Steve Asmussen, and her camp hasn't had time to formulate its plans for her. "No decision has been made on any race," Jackson said. But he is the type of owner who relishes challenges. He could have retired Curlin to stud after his championship season in 2007, but opted to give him new challenges as a 4-year-old. He wanted to send the colt to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Paris -- a race no U.S.-based horse has ever won -- until Curlin showed that running on grass wasn't his best game.

The prudent next start for Rachel Alexandra would be the Acorn Stakes at Belmont Park in June, but she would scarcely prove anything by winning a $300,000 race against a bunch of overmatched fillies. In sharp contrast, the Preakness would be a historic triumph, and it would give the filly a strong claim to the Horse of the Year title. Undoubtedly, Jackson and Asmussen would prefer to give her more than two weeks' rest between races, but in her lifetime Rachel Alexandra will never have an opportunity as golden as the 134th Preakness. Jackson should seize it.