| Page 2 of 2 < |
In France, Social Programs Shield Many From Economic Downturn
|
|
"The French model has its advantages," Guaino said, "but we must not go too far in the opposite direction either."
Beaufranqui no longer has to worry about it, but Prime Minister François Fillon has begun ruminating publicly about the possibility of raising the standard retirement age, perhaps by a year, to 61, to soften the system's impact on the government deficit. The deficit in France's version of Social Security alone is likely to reach $12 billion by the end of the year, pushed up by a drop in salary deductions due to the crisis, officials at the Finance Ministry estimated.
Nicolas Véron, a French economic analyst at the Brussels-based Bruegel research foundation, said a crucial point will come when the crisis begins to ease and growth resumes, which European officials predict could happen next year. What seems now to be an advantage protecting many French people from harm, he cautioned, could turn out then to be what free-market promoters argue that it is -- a shackle on economic activity.
"It could hurt us then more than it is helping us now," he said.
In the meantime, Sarkozy's government has pocketed the benefits over the last nine months of crisis. The more than 5 million people employed directly or indirectly by the government may be a drag on the economy in normal times, specialists said. But as the crisis grinds along, they represent a stable pool of workers who have secure jobs and whose incomes continue to pulse through the economy.
Economists estimate that nearly a third of France's economy derives in some way from government-provided social protections, the highest proportion in the world, ahead of even such social-protection icons as Sweden and the Netherlands. In all, they estimated, French government outlays in salaries and other benefits amount to as much as $100 billion a year.
That sum, three times the government's economic stimulus plan announced early this year, helps explain why Sarkozy resisted President Obama's call for more stimulus spending at the London economic summit in March.
Sarkozy, who describes himself as a friend of the United States but is never one to shy from the spotlight, has taken credit for much of what the Group of 20 summit accomplished in London, calling decisions taken there a fulfillment of his own promise to "refound capitalism."
In remarks to members of Parliament leaked to the press, Sarkozy reportedly said Obama's lack of experience had proved to be a handicap for taking bold steps, and the French president cast himself in the role of experienced statesman ready to show the way -- the French way.
It is also the way of Josephine Baguerre, an 85-year-old widow who spends 10 months a year in Menton. Baguerre was taking in the sun one recent weekday during a rest stop on her way back from the market.
An Alsatian whose husband was a miner, she said her plans for the day included cooking lunch, taking a siesta and perhaps enjoying a cut-rate dinner at the subsidized miners' retirement home just up the hill from her rented apartment. The mine's retirement system also allows her to live rent-free in a company-provided home back in Alsace, she said. Her pension payments cover the rent on a Menton apartment and allow her to travel back and forth as the spirit moves her.
"Otherwise, I could never manage it," she said, heading off with her bag of groceries.


