Close Races in Virginia, New Jersey May Be Indicators for 2010

Gubernatorial elections in the year after a presidential election are unreliable indicators, but in some instances they have foreshadowed problems for the party in the White House.

In 1993, with Bill Clinton in his first year as president, Republicans captured Virginia and New Jersey; a year later, they took control of the House and Senate. Four years ago at this point, there was still talk of Republican dominance after President George W. Bush's reelection. But Democrats held New Jersey and Virginia that fall.

Those elections signaled that Bush was a declining asset and that the Republican message had begun to lose its potency. A year later, Republicans lost control of Congress, and two years after that Democrats retook the White House.

No one anticipates a congressional upheaval of that sort in 2010. The Republicans are clearly in disarray: They are shrinking as a party and are struggling for leadership and vision. The start of Obama's presidency gives Democrats hope that they can weather what normally should be a difficult midterm election for the party in power.

But White House and Democratic Party leaders know that a loss in either state this fall will be interpreted as a setback for Obama. Republican victories in either state will boost a beleaguered party that is searching desperately for signs of renewal.

Virginia and New Jersey will be important for another reason. A lingering question from the 2008 election is whether the enthusiasm surrounding Obama's candidacy was singularly focused or transferable to other Democrats when he is not on the ballot. His candidacy was fueled by the passions he engendered among his followers and by the strongly anti-Bush sentiment in the country. To what extent did the results in 2008 signal affirmative endorsement of the Democratic Party?

The 2008 election brought a surge of participation into the Democratic primaries and significant shifts in voter registration that changed the shape of the electorates in many states, Virginia among them. Will all those new voters continue to participate this year and next?

The next phase will test whether Democrats continue to build on that record, and the first tests will come this fall. That's why so much is at stake Tuesday as the Democrats in Virginia select their gubernatorial nominee.