The Monday Fix: Opponents of Obama on Health Care Off to Slow Start

While President Obama pitches his health-care plan to the American Medical Association today in Chicago, much of the selling of the proposal to the American public -- and the Senate -- is already well underway, thanks to several outside groups that have been organizing and advertising for weeks.

Organizing for America, the arm of the Democratic National Committee that controls the coveted 13 million-person e-mail list gathered during Obama's presidential campaign, held a nationwide organizing event to mass its grass-roots supporters behind the proposal earlier this month. This week, the group will begin featuring some of the more than 200,000 stories submitted to its Web site documenting everyday Americans' struggles with the health-care system.

Meanwhile, Healthy Economy Now, a coalition that includes such ideological odd bedfellows as the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America and the Service Employees International Union, is on course to spend $5 million on television ads urging support for forward movement on health care. "The president and many in Congress are working to pass health reform," says the ad's narrator. "It's time to move forward. Fix health care now."

With so much outside activity on behalf of Obama, you'd expect the forces opposed to such a plan to be on the march as well, right? Wrong.

To date, there have been almost no coordinated efforts by conservatives to fight Obama's plan.

"In the health-care debate, most of the interest groups have stayed at the negotiating table hoping that, as the old joke goes, 'the cannibals would eat them last,' " said Larry McCarthy, a Republican consultant who closely tracks the world of outside interest groups.

The silence on the right is a continuation of the struggles of outside groups during the 2008 presidential campaign, in which a series of allegedly well-funded efforts fizzled before even running an ad. Explanations varied -- from the fact that many of the well-heeled conservative donors didn't feel passionately about Sen. John McCain's candidacy to the decline in the economy making cutting a big check less appealing to the tangle of new Federal Election Commission laws governing contributions, which set the legal bar for donating far higher.

Some Republican strategists see glimmers of hope in the health-care fight, pointing out that business groups -- led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- met late last week to plot strategy. "In the past few weeks, I think donor interest is starting to pick up as the full extent of President Obama's tax, spending and deficit plans becomes apparent," McCarthy noted.

The problem for Republicans is that they have given their Democratic rivals a significant head start in the health-care fight. Even if the money arrived today to fund a countermessage on health care, by the time it was up and running the debate will be well advanced and the persuasion window for people undecided about the plan will be far smaller.

Volatility in the House

The 2010 House playing field remains in its infancy, with both parties focused on persuading wavering members to run rather than retire while simultaneously identifying their opportunities to play offense and recruiting candidates in those seats.

In the short term, the race to watch is in New York's 23rd District, where the elevation of Rep. John McHugh (R) to secretary of the Army will set off a special election this fall in a swing seat in the deep northern reaches of the Empire State.

The New York special will provide a barometer of where the two parties stand on the cusp of an election year. If Republicans can hold the seat, it may mean that their electoral fortunes have bottomed out and the party is on its way back. If Democrats take over the seat, it will further demoralize the GOP and could complicate its fundraising and late recruitment efforts.