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Obama Under Pressure to Push Unpopular Tax on Health Benefits
But research shows that those people tend not to be wealthy highfliers with gold-plated insurance plans, as advocates assert, but those who have to pay high premiums just for basic coverage -- the old, the sick, women of childbearing age and residents of high-cost urban areas. Elise Gould, director of health policy research at the liberal Economic Policy Institute, found that a similar cap suggested by a 2005 tax reform panel would have raised taxes mainly on workers with family coverage, many of them in smaller firms with high concentrations of older, female or unionized workers.
Labor leaders, who have for years chosen better health benefits over higher wages in contract negotiations, call the tax a deal-killer. "It has the capacity to really undermine trust in a basic kind of way," said Gerald Shea, assistant to the president of the AFL-CIO. "If you say you really, really want to help out the middle class, what are you doing charging more for the health care that's already costing us an arm and a leg?"
It could also prove poisonous in the 2010 elections. In a recent survey for Health Care for America Now, a labor-backed reform advocacy group, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake found that 80 percent opposed a tax on benefits, compared with 63 percent support for limiting itemized deductions for high earners.
"Taxing benefits would be a disaster," Lake said. "You have no idea how strongly this is going to backfire if we do it."
Key lawmakers in the House don't particularly like either of the competing tax plans and may yet offer a third proposal. But in the Senate, the more important congressional battleground, taxing health premiums "has reached the level of a foregone conclusion," said Len Nichols, a health policy analyst at the nonpartisan New America Foundation.
Politics aside, the tax dwarfs all other current proposals as a potential cash cow. The tax-free treatment of employer-provided health insurance is the biggest loophole in the tax code and the second-largest federal health-care cost, after Medicare. Taxing half of all employer-sponsored premiums would generate nearly $1.2 trillion over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, compared with about $270 billion for new limits on itemized deductions for the rich.
Advocates say taxing benefits also makes good economic sense. The rewards of the current tax break fall heavily to the wealthy, and there is no similar tax break for workers who must buy insurance on their own. Many economists also dislike it because it encourages workers to take compensation in the form of health care instead of higher wages, pushing resources into the health system and increasing costs.
"Even in the absence of wanting the money, you'd want to do it," said MIT economist Jonathan Gruber.
Senate Democrats have been considering two options. The first would be to tax premiums above a certain level, such as the value of the standard family plan offered to federal employees, which will be about $15,000 in 2013, Senate aides said. That would raise about $420 billion over 10 years. The other option would be to apply the cap only to families earning more than $200,000 a year ($100,000 for individuals), which would raise about $160 billion over 10 years.
A senior Baucus aide said the committee is leaning toward the former option, which would do more to "bend the curve" of soaring health costs.
In either case, workers would see any insurance premiums in excess of the cap added to their wages and taxed as income. That could increase their tax bills by hundreds or thousands of dollars a year, said Paul Fronstin, director of health research at the nonprofit Employee Benefit Research Institute.
The Baucus aide stressed that the goal of reform is to lower premiums for everyone. But the White House is clearly not convinced.
"There is still a great deal of disagreement," Sebelius said, "on whether or not taxing benefits at any level of any kind really does put us a step forward or take us a step back."
Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.