Setting 'Reasonable' Goals for Old Town

Study Sees Potential, No Allure for Chains

Chain restaurants and big-name retailers won't be settling in Old Town Manassas anytime soon, but that does not mean the historic area won't fare well once the economy turns around, retail consultants said last week.

After studying Old Town in 2006 and again this year, a consultant from the market analysis company Retail Compass told city officials that if they invest in the current businesses and set "reasonable expectations," new life will come to the stagnant district.

"There are parts of this study that provided a real jolt of reality, but you aren't going to be able to move forward until you really understand the facts," said Manassas Vice Mayor Andrew L. Harrover (R). "A lot of folks have the mentality that we need a national chain, but this was a positive step to have someone advise us and tell us what is really possible."

Over the past three years, new retail outlets have opened along Liberia Avenue, a primary corridor outside Old Town; residents' discretionary spending declined; and new buildings on the outskirts of Old Town, such as the Logan building, emerged. All this hurt the retail potential in the heart of Old Town, said Heather Arnold, founder of Retail Compass.

"Availability in new shopping centers along Liberia has a significant impact on Old Town's ability to attract new tenants," Arnold said. "Most retailers who will be successful in the Manassas market will greatly benefit from the advantages that a Liberia Avenue location is able to provide that Old Town cannot," including parking and visibility, which appeal to chain stores.

The study, which cost Manassas about $17,000, said that since 2006 two vacant spaces in Old Town were filled but that eight previously occupied spaces went dormant. Arnold said about 98 retail-appropriate spaces are within the study area, which runs between West and Main streets and Prince William and Church streets.

The most recent vacancy rate for Old Town is about 10.9 percent. The national rate is about 13.1 percent, and the Washington area rate is about 11.3 percent, according to CoStar/Delta Associates, which provides commercial data.

"The Manassas numbers don't concern me," Arnold said. "I think Old Town, considering what everyone is going through across the country, is exceeding my expectations."

With its historic, quaint atmosphere and support from the city, Old Town remains attractive to a certain kind of retail market, Arnold said. Restaurants, cafes and specialty gift stores would fit well in Old Town and are what will help turn the area into a destination, she said.

During this difficult economic time, however, Arnold said it is important that the city fills the vacancies with quality tenants, even if it means placing offices in retail-designated storefronts. The city can then establish guidelines to ensure that the office users respect the character and pedestrian-oriented retail environment Manassas officials have created in Old Town.

Arnold said city officials also need to focus on retail retention. Helping existing businesses will show that Manassas is a "business-friendly" place, she said.

The redevelopment of Battle Street, in a way, was a retention effort, Harrover said. The city invested $650,000 in the project, meant to revitalize downtown.

With the study complete, said Manassas Community Development Director Elizabeth S. Via, the next step is to disseminate the information to the major players, including real estate agents, businesses and residents. Via said she hopes that will happen this summer in the form of a downtown summit.