Kiplinger
Searching for Signs of Economic Rebound? Here's Your Scorecard.
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Sunday, June 21, 2009
When three of these six benchmarks turn around, you'll know the recovery is well underway.
-- Jobless claims. A weekly report on the number of first-time filings for unemployment claims nationwide, released every Thursday morning.
Why it matters: It's the earliest indicator of whether the pace of layoffs is slowing.
What to look for: A four-week moving average hitting 550,000 and continuing to decline would signal that companies have stopped slashing jobs.
-- Durable goods. A monthly report on new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods (household appliances, machinery and so on), released toward the end of each month.
Why it matters: Business executives commit to purchases of these big-ticket items if they anticipate increased demand.
What to look for: A two- or three-month uptrend in orders -- excluding defense, aircraft and other transportation equipment -- would presage an expanding economy.
-- Existing-home sales. The number of single-family homes, condos and co-ops sold each month, reported on or about the 25th of each month.
Why it matters: Housing and related industries are a huge part of the U.S. economy. The economy can't grow much until consumers believe home values are no longer in free fall.


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