Midyear Lull: Time to Reflect On the Figures

This should be a quiet week for economic news, after two that were anything but. No major data are to be released, and top Federal Reserve officials have nothing on their public calendars.

So it will be a chance for economy watchers to try to digest what we know about where we are as the second half of the year gets underway. And there are lots of mixed signals to parse. On one hand, economic numbers have been generally better in the past few weeks than they were before. On the other hand, the exceptions to that rule, most notably the terrible June jobs report, represent some of the most important data points.

But that muddled picture is how it always is at economic turning points, so this week will offer a few more modest additions to what we know about where things stand.

Today, the Institute for Supply Management's survey of purchasing managers at non-manufacturing businesses will come out. The index is expected to show modest improvement, to 46 in June, from 44 in May (numbers below 50 indicate contraction in the service sector).

Also this week, the Federal Reserve is to issue data on consumer credit in May that are expected to show a continued decline in borrowing by American households. That probably reflects a combination of Americans trying to reduce their debt loads to more sustainable levels and troubles in the financial sector forcing them to do so.

On Thursday, a report from the International Council of Shopping Centers on June sales at major chain retailers is expected to be lackluster, and Friday's reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to edge down slightly.

-- Neil Irwin

NEIL IRWIN'S MUST-READS:

Martin Weiss at Money and Markets (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com) explores the scope of the collapse in debt, and a June 21 post on the economics blog Calculated Risk (http://www.calculatedriskblog.com) explores the Washington regional housing market.