By Thomas Boswell
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Blow up the Nats. Or at least spend the rest of this month, before the trading deadline, giving it a try. This misshapen group is no good together, so why not take it apart?
The Nats should keep their eight young starting pitchers, including three at Class AAA. Hang on to Ryan Zimmerman, injured catcher Jesús Flores, perhaps Josh Willingham and probably Adam Dunn. New outfielder Nyjer Morgan looks useful. Beyond that: open for business.
No team could trade all of the rest, nor should it. Even dealing half of the rest for reasonable value wouldn't be feasible. But the Nats should be committed to the concept that their current roster is so lopsided, so dysfunctional that any reasonable change will probably be an improvement. If, next month, the Nats are without Nick Johnson, Joe Beimel, Willie Harris, perhaps Cristian Guzmán and more, too, don't be surprised.
Did you think that Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan would be traded last week, or Elijah Dukes sent to the minors? Acting general manager Mike Rizzo already appears to be far down this road to radical reshaping. Inside Nats Town, the words "start over" have been heard.
One reason Manny Acta seems unable to manage, though he handled games adequately in '07, is that he has no team. He has a monstrosity, a random collection of pieces that don't interconnect and can't, in any normal sense of the word, be "managed." The Nats are like driving a car with two steering wheels, three engines, four sets of brakes and no wheels.
Why doesn't it go anywhere?
Because . . . it . . . is . . . not . . . a . . . car.
It's time for the Nats to trade brakes for wheels and hope for a vehicle that moves -- someday. Right now, the Nats are perfectly constituted -- to lose every way imaginable. On Monday night in Colorado, they wasted yet another fine pitching performance by a rookie, Craig Stammen, in a 1-0 loss. Rizzo says the Nats won't hold "a fire sale." Translation: All decent offers appreciated, just no insulting jokes, please.
All season, everybody has said that they've seldom seen a team that is so much less than the sum of its parts. How can you be middle of the pack in the NL in scoring, have a functional young pitching rotation and yet be on a pace for an utterly awful 113 losses?
How can one of the worst teams in 50 years, at least by its record so far, have four players who could be the team's symbolic all-star next week without causing outright laughter -- Zimmerman (30-game hitting streak), Dunn (22 homers entering last night), Guzmán (a shortstop batting .314) and John Lannan (3.45 ERA)?
Johnson and Willingham are hitting. Jordan Zimmermann, with 75 strikeouts and 21 walks in 75 2/3 innings, is one of the game's most promising rookie pitchers. There are other decent notes, like kid hurlers Stammen, Ross Detwiler and Shairon Martis, 5-3 when he was sent back to Class AAA. Yet the Nats have been outscored by 102 runs, proof that their record, while slightly unlucky, is mostly deserved.
Hindsight's cheap but also necessary. Former GM Jim Bowden, with Stan Kasten looking over his shoulder and the Lerners pinching the purse strings, built an incoherent roster. For three years, the Nats had the first premise of a plan -- "develop young starting pitching" -- but little else. So, they haphazardly made any opportunistic transaction that seemed to "add value," usually at minimal expense. The result was a mess.
To illustrate, the Nats came to spring training this year with 11 viable outfielders, five fighting for starting spots and six more capable of filling out the bench, but not one relief pitcher in the organization who had ever saved 10 games in a season. Hello, chaos.
What do the Nats need?
They have no bullpen. That's Problem One. Every trade talk starts there, looking for a major league-ready prospect or a setup man. Next, before Morgan arrived in center field, the Nats also had no defense -- anywhere. Even strengths, like Zimmerman and Johnson at the infield corners, have crumbled with 19 errors.
Before Morgan, the Nats also had no offensive speed; they depended on homers and hot hitters, but couldn't manufacture runs in close games. Their top three base stealers had 17 thefts. Morgan has 21, three in four games as a Nat.
As if that weren't enough, the Nats have few situational hitters. Zimmerman was excellent as a rookie; now, he thinks he's past such humble duties. Put a man on second with nobody out or a man on third with one out and no Nat changes his plan of attack. Bunt for a hit, hit-and-run, squeeze? The Nats? You could die waiting.
Finally, the Nats have no leaders, though Dunn tries in his way. But they're congenial losers -- no fights in the clubhouse or on the field. In part, Morgan was acquired for his infectious energy just as Dukes was sent down, in part, because you never knew when he'd decide not to run hard on a grounder or short-leg a ball in the outfield.
As Rizzo acknowledges, Johnson is the Nats' most tradable piece. If he isn't dealt for bullpen help, it's a mistake. His salary, $5.5 million in his walk year, is reasonable. He's healthy with an .807 OPS and has batted No. 2 for a Yankees pennant winner. The Giants, Red Sox and Mets are potential suitors. Though Johnson is a smooth first baseman, his range has shrunk. The skids have already been greased for Johnson to go. With Morgan at leadoff, Guzmán, who will be hard to trade with $8 million on his '10 contract, can move back into his natural No. 2 hole, instead of batting sixth, as he is temporarily.
Beimel, the steadiest vet in the Nats' pen, will, ironically, probably be dealt, perhaps back to the Dodgers. He's on a one-year deal. He's proven and has value. That's always been Plan A. Set him free. If tough old lefty Ron Villone regains his form, he could be a situational specialist for a contender and might fill out a deal. Wish him well. The Nats got lefty Sean Burnett in the Milledge deal because they assumed Beimel and/or Villone would leave.
Just as water travels downhill, rumors run to the highest point of possibility. So Dunn or Willingham are often mentioned as future AL designated hitters. Sensible. But why should the Nats blow up the No. 3-4-5 stability that they have in the center of their perfectly presentable lineup -- Zimmerman (five-year deal), Dunn (signed for '10) and Willingham (under club control through '11). They hit right-left-right. They should hit 90 homers a year as a group (44 entering last night). All have high career OPS. Listen to offers, but demand a lot.
As for others, somebody should want Harris, the bumptious 31-year-old utility man, who belongs with a winner, and perhaps even mildly disgruntled Ronnie Belliard, who's being showcased now in hopes somebody remembers he started for the '06 champion Cardinals.
Trades seem easy in theory, but any team that might want Johnson could also take a shot at Aubrey Huff or Adam LaRoche. And the players the Nats would want are prospects, in the minors or on the fringes of rosters, whom only the most ardent fans know. The contenders who make trades don't give up the name players who got them there.
Still, it's time for Rizzo to take the "interim" off his own job title and do the job he's spent his whole life preparing for. Watching Morgan for just four days, as he catches balls no other Nat center fielder could grab, reaches base six times and steals three times, should give Rizzo confidence.
The Nats have a core of promising young starting pitchers, a serviceable middle of the batting order, a shot at Stephen Strasburg and perhaps another No. 1 overall draft pick next year. The rest is a mess. To make this team equal to the sum of its parts, you have to change the parts. A wheel or two would be nice.
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