A Chance for Honduras

The best way to defeat deposed president Manuel Zelaya lies in allowing his return.

THE POLITICAL crisis in Honduras began as a disaster for supporters of Latin American democracy -- not only because the army's arrest and deportation of President Manuel Zelaya last week violated the country's constitution but because it played into the hands of the faction, led by Mr. Zelaya's mentor, Hugo Chávez, that is attempting to overthrow democratic institutions across the region. Fortunately, Mr. Chávez wasted his advantage: His foolish attempt to fly Mr. Zelaya back into Tegucigalpa on Sunday flopped, producing a ludicrous televised circus in the air and deadly violence on the ground.

Now, with some help from the Obama administration, what could have been a catastrophe has become an opportunity to deal a defeat to the populist authoritarianism that Mr. Chávez and Mr. Zelaya represent. That chance will depend, however, on whether Honduras's de facto government, which says that it is defending democracy and the rule of law, is willing to act on its words.

Today, Costa Rica's President Oscar Arias is due to begin mediating between Mr. Zelaya and the de facto government's president, Roberto Micheletti. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who played an important role in setting up the talks, said that the aim is to avoid further bloodshed and achieve the "restoration of democratic constitutional order." For Mr. Micheletti, this must mean a concession that he -- along with the overwhelming majority of Honduras's political elite -- will be loath to grant: the return of Mr. Zelaya to his post as president. To many Hondurans, this concession looks risky as well as humiliating, since before being deposed, Mr. Zelaya was flouting decisions by Congress and the Supreme Court while attempting to mobilize popular support for an illegal rewrite of the constitution.

Yet, once Mr. Zelaya is back in office, the weight of the law will lie entirely on the side of his opponents. He has been charged with multiple crimes -- from refusing to respect court orders to invading a military base with a mob of his supporters. Even if he does not wind up in jail, there is little chance he could now -- with the rest of the hemisphere looking on -- succeed in changing the constitution or perpetuating himself in office beyond the end of his term in January. Supreme Court spokesmen in Tegucigalpa have been hinting at the possibility of an amnesty for the president; Mr. Micheletti should be aiming to exchange that for Mr. Zelaya's commitment to leave peacefully when his term ends and respect the decisions of Congress and the Supreme Court in the meantime.

Such an outcome would be a victory not only for Honduras but also for the beleaguered cause of democracy in the region. Mr. Chávez dreams of a putsch in Tegucigalpa that would produce another lawless autocracy like his own; instead, he could watch as a peaceful solution is brokered by the United States and moderate Latin allies that would reinforce the Organization of American States' democracy charter.