Maliki Keeps Foes, Friends Guessing

Unilateral and Aggressive Measures Aimed at More Support for Reelection

BAGHDAD -- With a raid this week on a camp of Iranian dissidents once sheltered by the United States, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has again demonstrated a knack for surprising both foes and allies in his attempt to emerge as the victor in crucial parliamentary elections in January.

So far, he has ordered attacks on militiamen in Basra against the advice of the U.S. military, turned the June 30 deadline for U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraqi cities into an orchestrated celebration of Iraqi independence and rigorously tried to conceal the U.S. presence that remains, fearful that Iraqis will see the withdrawal as a charade.

Maliki's government had for months contemplated a move against the Iranian exiles, who are members of a group called the Mujaheddin-e Khalq, promising the U.S. government that it would treat the more than 3,000 camp residents humanely and not force any of them to return to Iran. But the raid Tuesday caught U.S. military officials, diplomats and even some Iraqi officers by surprise. Iran, which has called for action against the group, lauded the operation.

Taken together, the moves demonstrate an eagerness on Maliki's part to do what was unthinkable when he took office three years ago -- create an image of himself as an independent leader in a country that still hosts 130,000 U.S. troops. But his penchant for unilateral action, often backed with the force of arms, has created enemies across the spectrum, many of them determined to block his reelection.

"He wants to turn himself into a national symbol, and he is willing to use power and force to promote himself as one," said Salim Abdullah, a Sunni lawmaker and part of a bloc in parliament that has opposed Maliki in the past. "He is determined to break through anything that can get in the way of him becoming prime minister again."

Challenges Loom Large

Maliki faces an array of challenges as he heads toward elections in January that will choose a parliament and eventually lead to a new cabinet and prime minister. Few expect him to continue to enjoy the remarkable convergence of luck and fortune that has helped transform him from a compromise choice as prime minister, whose weakness made him appealing to more powerful forces, into the axis today around which Iraqi politics have begun to revolve.

Violence remains a feature of the landscape here, threatening to undo what Maliki, fairly or unfairly, has touted as his greatest accomplishment: a restoration of a semblance of calm in Baghdad and other war-wrecked towns and cities.

On Friday, car bombings near five Shiite mosques in Baghdad killed at least 29 people, underscoring insurgents' continued ability to strike at the heart of the fortified capital.

Perhaps even more challenging to Maliki are the frenetic negotiations that have become a parlor game in Baghdad. Followers of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, blamed for some of the worst sectarian bloodletting, have ventured to Anbar province, once the cradle of the Sunni insurgency. A procession of politicians -- Kurd and Arab, secular and religious -- has visited Abdel-Aziz Hakim, a Shiite leader stricken with cancer, at his hospital room in Tehran. He remains lucid, though he often converses with guests while receiving oxygen, visitors say.

Politicians say Ibrahim al-Jafari, a former prime minister, has coined a phrase for the talks: "There are no guarantees for anyone, and there are no exclusions for anyone."

Since the spring, Maliki has courted Sunni leaders, including Saleh al-Mutlak, who counts former Baathists among his constituency, and Ahmed Abu Risha, probably the most powerful tribal sheik in Anbar. Abu Risha has declared his intention to ally with Maliki.

"If he considers you a friend, he keeps you as a friend," Abu Risha said.