Sorry, Conan, Numbers Don't Lie but They Do Fall

Jay Leno, the guy NBC tossed out of "The Tonight Show" for being too old-school, is now being touted as the Future of Television as he becomes the network's low-cost programming alternative at 10 on weeknights.

Meanwhile, what of Conan O'Brien, the guy NBC proclaimed the Future of Television when they gave Leno the hook on "The Tonight Show " because a Conan-hosted show was going to attract so many more young viewers?

He's flamed out.

In his 14th week as host of "The Tonight Show" -- the most recent for which final stats are available -- Conan clocked just 1,000 more 18-to-34-year-olds than Leno had one year earlier.

One thousand people isn't even a full house at the Kennedy Center's Eisenhower Theater.

It's a Wizards game at Verizon Center, if 19 out of every 20 seats is empty.

It's statistical flotsam in the broadcast TV business.

Just 13 weeks earlier, when he made his much ballyhooed debut as host of "The Tonight Show," Conan had attracted nearly a million more 18-to-34-year-olds than Leno had snared the comparable week one year earlier. And, his overall audience for the week topped 6 million viewers, leaving NBC suits so giddy they declared Conan the new King of Late Night TV.

Which they've been trying to live down ever since.

Because after his inflated premiere week, Conan has finished behind Leno's year-ago viewer count every week.

"No problem," NBC says, explaining they are not in the tonnage business. NBC is in the business of selling young viewers to Madison Avenue, and Conan is still outstripping Leno's "Tonight Show" numbers in the 18-to-34-year-old age bracket.

That demographic group is the Holy Grail of Madison Avenue. That's because 18-to-34-year-olds are the least interested in television, making them the hardest for advertisers to reach via television -- and therefore the people advertisers want most to reach via television.

Yes, it is just like dating in high school.

So far Conan's still hanging on to his lead over Leno's "Tonight Show," in the category, but barely. In his opening week, he came in nearly 140 percent ahead of Leno. By Week 5, Conan's advantage had been slashed to 26 percent. (Week 10, Conan averaged fewer viewers than Leno in the age bracket. But Leno had received a major ratings goose that week, when his Friday lead-in was the Beijing Olympics Opening Ceremonies.) And as of Nielsen's most recent numbers, Conan's slicing only the thinnest of leads over Leno in the demographic group. So it's ironic his biggest apologist these days seems to be Leno, who, in group hugs and one-on-ones, when asked about Conan's ratings tumble, reminds The Reporters Who Cover Television that he was not always the King of Late Night when he hosted "The Tonight Show." Since the Summer TV Press Tour 2009, Leno has given some variation on this answer:

When I started "The Tonight Show," it was an interesting challenge. It was "You stink. You suck. We hate you." And then you just -- you work, and you put your nose to the grindstone. And you apply yourself, and you try to turn it around.

Of course, Leno almost always manages to pair that defense of Conan with a bit of business that goes like this -- again, from the press tour:

Do you know something? I did "The Tonight Show" for 17 years. When I got "The Tonight Show" it was Number 1. . . . When I handed "The Tonight Show" off, it was still Number 1, whoo!