Economy and Politics Could Make U.S. Balk at Climate Pact

Delegates from the world's economic powers convened in Washington for a new round of climate talks this week, searching for a way to improve the chances of securing a new global warming pact in a time of intense economic and political uncertainty.

The meeting of the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate -- which includes the world's 17 biggest emitters of greenhouse gases -- marked the start of three weeks of negotiations that could help determine whether the international community can reach a meaningful agreement by the end of the year to curb climate change.

"If people focus on their real interests -- what they can do, what they can't do -- there's a deal there to be done," Todd Stern, U.S. special envoy for climate change, told reporters after the talks concluded Friday afternoon.

The key questions that have dominated the talks from the beginning remain unresolved: What level of emissions cuts are both industrialized and major developing countries willing to embrace? What sort of financing will developed countries provide to help vulnerable nations adapt to climate change and to help emerging economies embark on a more environmentally sustainable growth trajectory?

There are some signs that negotiators are making incremental progress. Over the past two days, delegates spoke in detail about how they might be able to incorporate domestic actions by nations -- especially major emerging economies such as China and India -- into part of an international agreement, and how to verify countries' carbon cuts.

But several representatives have questioned whether the United States will be able to make firm enough commitments on its emissions targets and what amount of money it can devote to helping developing countries in light of the economic downturn and the fact that the Senate has yet to pass a climate bill.

"I really worry we have a scenario where President Obama comes to Copenhagen and says, 'Yes we can, but I'm not ready," said the U.N.'s lead negotiator, Yvo de Boer, invoking the president's campaign slogan.

Stern made it clear that his team remained at least somewhat constrained by domestic politics. Obama officials are wary of making the same mistake President Clinton and his deputies made in 1997, when they agreed to a global warming pact in Kyoto that lacked domestic political support.

"It doesn't mean if the bill doesn't pass we have no capacity of moving in Copenhagen, but the more positive action, the better." Responding to some criticism from European ministers, he told reporters, "It may be that some people on the other side of the pond don't understand the system that well, but that's the way our system works, and we're pushing ahead."

Swedish Environment Minister Anders Carlgren, who participated in this week's talks because Sweden currently holds the revolving European Union presidency, said that "there are great expectations and hope" that President Obama will help break the log jam that has stymied climate negotiations for years. "We still hope he can deliver in Copenhagen," Carlgren said.

It remains unclear whether the Obama administration will use next week's G-20 summit in Pittsburgh to press for significant international financing for clean-energy technology, which major developing countries see as critical to any broader climate deal.

"Climate finance will be one of the issues on the agenda, but it was not intended to be a major focus," said Michael Froman, deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs.

Matthias Machnig, Germany's environmental secretary, said negotiators are trying to find informal ways to narrow the differences between countries, including the possibility that the United States could set a more ambitious emissions reduction target by 2030 to help broker a deal.

"That might be our way out of the situation," Machnig said in an interview. "We need to bring two things together: the art of the possible and the art of the necessary." Staff writer Steven Mufson contributed to this report.