In Sign of Times, Alliances Shift Ahead of Iraqi Elections

BAGHDAD, Sept. 29 -- Four years ago, Iraq's electoral landscape looked something like this: Shiite Arab parties were joined in a disparate coalition bent on dominating the government; the main Kurdish parties were allied; and Sunni Arabs and secular voters were fractured, motivated largely by a fear of disenfranchisement.

As elections set for January approach, that landscape looks much the same, save for one key difference. Bucking tremendous pressure from the country's clerical establishment and neighboring Iran, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Dawa party, a longtime fixture of Shiite politics, have chosen to run on their own.

The decision, to be announced Thursday, represents Maliki's biggest gamble since taking power in April 2006. A decisive victory will probably mean he serves four more years as prime minister. A loss might force him into exile. The election campaign will almost assuredly be dominated by the battle between him and his onetime Shiite allies, with his supporters and foes warning that their struggle may unleash not just dirty tricks but violence.

"I agree that it's a risk," said Sadiq al-Rikabi, a senior political adviser to Maliki. "But if you want to bring about change in Iraq, then we have to take that risk."

By most accounts, Iraqi leaders have shown a greater knack for politics than for governing. A current of disgust at their corruption and ineptitude runs through many conversations here. Politicians themselves exude clubbishness. Names offered as an alternative to Maliki are often those mentioned in 2005, even though one possible candidate is accused of helping start a civil war (Ibrahim Jaafari), another, with a checkered past, has shown a remarkable inability to win votes (Ahmed Chalabi) and bodyguards of yet another were convicted of killing eight guards in a bank robbery (Adel Abdul Mahdi).

That is the downside.

The upside is that in months of negotiations, politicians across the spectrum have shown a willingness to talk to their old enemies. A tribal sheik from Anbar province, long hostile to Shiites, has joined one Shiite-dominated list. A former leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, a Sunni insurgent group, plans to attend Maliki's news conference Thursday in a show of support. Ayad Allawi, the purported standard-bearer of the secular vote, negotiated to join a list dominated by Shiite religious parties. And Maliki almost secured an alliance with another powerful Sunni tribal leader.

Behind part of the opportunism is a realization that nearly all the alliances are temporary. Once the map is redrawn by the vote in January, new coalitions are expected to emerge as bargaining begins over the choice of a prime minister and cabinet.

"Our conversations with everyone will keep going on," said Ali al-Adeeb, another adviser to Maliki. Added Rikabi: "After the elections, we'll still be open" to more allies.

Still, in the end, the alliances that have finally been forged are relatively monochromatic, despite early hopes that Maliki might fashion a broader coalition.

"All the coalitions are sectarian or ethnic, as they were in 2005," said Omar al-Haygal, a Sunni lawmaker and head of a group known as the Tribal Gathering.

In northern Iraq, the two main Kurdish parties will maintain their powerful electoral alliance, dented somewhat by a dissident list led by a former deputy of President Jalal Talabani. Their cohesion will probably ensure their role as kingmakers next year.