The Fix: Harry Reid's Reelection Dilemma

It's become increasingly clear in recent weeks that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is in deep trouble in his re-election race next fall.

A new independent poll conducted for the Las Vegas Review Journal shows Reid trailing two unknown opponents -- former state party chairwoman Sue Lowden and businessman Danny Tarkanian -- and just 38 percent of Nevada voters had a favorable opinion of their senator.

At the heart of Reid's vulnerability is the disconnect between his role in Washington as the leader of Senate Democrats and his status as Nevada's senior senator.

In Washington, Reid is tasked with carrying the agenda -- often, if not always -- of the Obama Administration. Reid drew headlines early this year when he insisted that the President wasn't his boss but he has generally been an advocate for his priorities -- as is expected from the Democratic Senate leader.

And, on the occasions when Reid has broken with the president, he has come under heavy fire from the liberal left who are demanding more fealty to their agenda.

Case in point: Firedoglake, a liberal blog run by Jane Hamsher, has organized a petition campaign alleging that Reid is aiding and abetting a Democratic Senator who is "blocking the public option" on health care. Nearly 30,000 have signed the petition that asserts that Reid "can no longer allow members of the Democratic caucus to block a public option behind the closed doors of the Senate."

On the other side of the political equation is Nevada, where Democratic victories in the last election belie the state's competitive underpinnings. While Obama carried the state by 12 points in 2008, George W. Bush won it -- albeit narrowly -- in 2004 and, aside from Clark County (Las Vegas), the state is populated with conservative-minded voters who are more likely to disagree than agree with the direction that Obama (and Congressional Democrats) are taking the country.

Trying to be a servant of two masters never works in politics -- a lesson that Tom Daschle (D- S.D.) learned the hard way when he sought a re-election in 2004 as the leader of his party.

Republicans repeatedly sought to highlight the differences between what Daschle said in Washington and what he said in South Dakota, and what ultimately may have ended the race was video footage of Daschle saying "I'm a D.C. resident".

The comparison -- as Reid loyalists are quick to note -- is inexact. South Dakota is more Republican territory than Nevada, Daschle's natural political inclinations are more liberal than those of Reid and Daschle drew a top tier opponent in Sen. John Thune (R) while Reid will face "b-listers" at best.

All true. And, Reid, as leader, has more opportunity than most to improve his numbers and standing in the state over the next months than most endangered Senators.

"Senator Reid has built a reputation as a consensus builder," said Jon Summers, who handles Nevada communications for Reid. Summers added that the health care bill represents a real chance for Reid to bring about "real insurance reform" that can get 60 votes on the Senate floor.

The fundamental dilemma that Reid faces -- how to carry Obama's agenda effectively while also appealing to Nevada voters to whom that agenda is too liberal -- is quite similar to the puzzle that Daschle tried (and failed) to solve six years ago, however.

The simple truth is in this hyper-partisan environment, serving as the public face of your party is only truly sustainable if you represent a state that -- in the main -- agrees with your views. (It was not always so; the last Senate leader to lose a bid for re-election was Arizona Democratic Sen. Ernest McFarland way back in 1952.)

Reid's challenge over the next 13 months is to prove to Nevada voters that he is their first (only?) priority. The problem is he will have to make that argument even as he is being pressured from the Administration -- and the liberal left -- to move the Obama agenda through Congress without substantial revision or change and is being watched like a hawk by Republicans for any slipup that would break the "Nevada first" veneer.

In other words: the squeeze is on.