Karzai expected to agree to runoff
Investigation strips Afghan president of a third of his votes

By Karen DeYoung and Joshua Partlow
Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Obama administration officials said they expect Afghan President Hamid Karzai to announce Tuesday that he will accept a runoff in his country's disputed election, after the invalidation of nearly a million of his votes by the commission investigating fraud in the Aug. 20 race.

The findings by the U.N.-backed International Complaints Commission, released Monday after two months of political turmoil, stripped Karzai of nearly a third of his tally. That brought him below 50 percent of the total and triggered a constitutionally mandated second round of voting between him and the runner-up, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah.

Senior administration officials, while palpably relieved at what they said had been an apparent breakthrough in tense negotiations with Karzai, remained reluctant to state unequivocally that he had agreed to a runoff. "There are any number of cliches you could choose from," said one official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, "but we'll wait until the chickens are hatched."

A U.N. spokeswoman said Monday that Karzai had told Secretary General Ban Ki-moon he will "fully respect" the constitutional process. But a senior U.N. official added to the uncertainty, saying that although Karzai planned to say Tuesday he would abide by the constitution -- and would complain about foreign interference in the election -- it remained unclear what resolution he would commit himself to.

Karzai's acceptance of another round of voting, after weeks of resistance, would allow the Obama administration to proceed with the high-level review of its faltering Afghanistan war strategy, a process that has been hamstrung by the delay in determining who its Afghan government partner will be. The White House has been under increasing congressional and public pressure to make a decision on whether to send tens of thousands of more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, as requested by the top American commander there.

Even as the results of the fraud investigation began to leak last week, Karzai continued to insist he had won legitimately, based on a preliminary tally announced in September by a government- allied election commission. Over the past several days, he has come under intense international pressure to agree to a runoff.

On Monday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton seized the opportunity to lock in publicly reports of progress, telling reporters that "we're looking to hear from President Karzai tomorrow, Kabul time."

"I am very hopeful that we will see a resolution in line with the constitutional order," she said. "But I don't want to preempt in any way President Karzai's statement, which will set the stage for how we go forward in the next stage of this. . . . He is going to announce his intentions." She added that she was "encouraged at the direction that the situation is moving."

According to an analysis by Democracy International, an independent monitor of investigation data from the U.N.-backed complaints commission, Karzai's share of the Aug. 20 vote dropped from 54.6 percent to about 48 percent. Abdullah was left with 31.5 percent of the vote. The final tally must be certified by Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission.

"They're basically mandated to take the orders, implement the orders . . . then go ahead and certify the final results," Grant Kippen, the Canadian head of the complaints commission, said in an interview. "There shouldn't be really any reason to doubt."

Throughout the political storm, Karzai's office has cast doubt on the credibility of the investigation, citing foreign interference and holding out the possibility that he would use his influence with the Afghan election commission to reject the fraud findings.

Afghan officials close to Karzai have been split in recent days over whether he would accept a runoff. One said that Karzai would be amenable to a second round, but that there must be a better public explanation for why more than a million votes -- including nearly 200,000 for Abdullah -- were tossed out.

"These people will need to be told why their votes were cancelled," the official said.

Parliament member Mohammad Moin Marastyal said a second round would deepen ethnic rifts in the country, with Pashtuns lining up behind Karzai and Tajiks behind Abdullah, potentially bringing more instability and violence.

"The same problems we have now will be far worse than they are today," he said.

In an interview Monday with National Public Radio, Abdullah said acceptance of the revised results and agreement to a runoff "will restore the faith of the people in the process."

He declined to discuss reports that he was negotiating a compromise in which Karzai would continue in the presidency while giving Abdullah and his supporters a prominent government role. Although some U.S. media reports have indicated such a "unity" government was a viable solution, several Western officials said it was unlikely.

The Afghan constitution requires a runoff if no candidate reaches 50 percent plus one vote. and Abdullah's departure would mean a second round between Karzai and the No. 3 candidate, Ramazan Bashardost, who won less than 10 percent.

Clinton expressed no concern that a runoff could be held within the next few weeks, saying the administration has "every assurance" from U.S. and Afghan military officials "that it is absolutely possible to do so."

Partlow reported from Kabul. Staff writer Colum Lynch in New York and special correspondent Javed Hamdard in Kabul contributed to this report.